Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

Iglesias, Raisel

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.4% K%
Range
19.1% to 35.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 36 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
83
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
71
Arsenal5 metrics
62
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.44
ERA current pace2.68
ERA rolling p503.05
Observed weight51%
ERA
1.65 2.32 3.05 3.79 4.46
FIP
2.28 2.69 3.15 3.61 4.02
K%
22.8% 24.9% 27.2% 29.5% 31.6%
BB%
5.0% 5.9% 6.8% 7.8% 8.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.11
84
ERA2.68
89
BB%6.9%
80
K%27.8%
85
xwOBA allowed0.287
79
Barrel allowed9.4%
20 -29 vs proj
Fastball velo94.3
49
Hard-hit allowed36.5%
65
Whiff%27.3%
84
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+103
56
Mithrandir Stuff+103
64
Changeup Stuff+105
76
Sinker Stuff+105
73
Slider Stuff+101
40
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Iglesias, Raisel · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.287 2026-09-12: 0.2962026-09-13: 0.2962026-09-14: 0.2962026-09-18: 0.2982026-09-19: 0.2942026-09-20: 0.2942026-09-21: 0.2912026-09-22: 0.2912026-09-23: 0.2912026-09-24: 0.2872026-09-25: 0.2872026-09-26: 0.287 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Iglesias, Raisel · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 61%61%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Iglesias, Raisel · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 37.2%Changeup: 35.9%Sinker: 18.8%Slider: 8.1% FF37% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 37%CH 36%SI 19%SL 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Iglesias, Raisel · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 37% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 94.3 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 36% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 88.4 mphCH88 mphSinker: 19% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 94.4 mphSI94 mphSlider: 8% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 82.7 mphSL83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 40.3% 203 103 qualified
CH 35.5% 179 105 limited sample
SI 16.7% 84 105 limited sample
SL 7.5% 38 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 40%, Changeup 28%, Sinker 22%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.75
K% Δ+0.024
Sample61.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.3----
Batters Faced158----
K%25.4%19.1% to 35.4%+/- 8.1%
BB%7.2%4.5% to 10.8%+/- 3.2%
Whiff%26.9%23.7% to 34.2%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.020.43 to 1.72+/- 0.65
xwOBA Against0.2960.236 to 0.331+/- 0.047
Barrel% Allowed7.5%3.5% to 10.7%+/- 3.6%
ERA3.431.24 to 5.21+/- 1.98
FIP3.442.42 to 4.87+/- 1.23
WHIP1.0900.809 to 1.459+/- 0.325
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1474 career BF

xwOBA0.248
K%25.6%
BB%6.7%
Barrel6.0%
vs RHH

1601 career BF

xwOBA0.246
K%26.7%
BB%5.3%
Barrel6.9%