Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 40%, Changeup 28%, Sinker 22%.
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026
Iglesias, Raisel
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team ATL
Archetype Offspeed mix artist
Age 36
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.44 |
| ERA current pace | 1.08 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 2.86 |
| Observed weight | 25% |
ERA
1.29
2.03
2.86
3.69
4.44
FIP
1.75
2.21
2.72
3.23
3.69
K%
21.8%
24.8%
28.2%
31.5%
34.5%
BB%
3.6%
4.8%
6.1%
7.4%
8.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%3.8%
98
+27 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.2%
88
+35 vs proj
Fastball velo94.4
51
Hard-hit allowed31.2%
90
K%33.3%
96
+25 vs proj
Whiff%31.5%
92
xwOBA allowed0.223
99
+33 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+103
62
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
46%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 47.9% | 112 | 102 | limited sample |
| CH | 33.8% | 79 | 105 | limited sample |
| SI | 15.0% | 35 | 108 | limited sample |
| SL | 3.4% | 8 | 96 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -2.35 |
| K% Δ | +0.079 |
| Sample | 20.3 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 41.4 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 163 | -- | -- |
| K% | 25.4% | 19.1% to 35.4% | +/- 8.1% |
| BB% | 7.2% | 4.5% to 10.8% | +/- 3.2% |
| Whiff% | 26.9% | 23.7% to 34.2% | +/- 5.3% |
| HR/9 | 1.02 | 0.43 to 1.72 | +/- 0.65 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.296 | 0.236 to 0.331 | +/- 0.047 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.5% | 3.5% to 10.7% | +/- 3.6% |
| ERA | 3.43 | 1.24 to 5.21 | +/- 1.99 |
| FIP | 3.44 | 2.42 to 4.87 | +/- 1.23 |
| WHIP | 1.092 | 0.809 to 1.459 | +/- 0.325 |
vs LHH
1474 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.248 |
| K% | 25.6% |
| BB% | 6.7% |
| Barrel | 6.0% |
vs RHH
1601 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.246 |
| K% | 26.7% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 6.9% |