Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 40%, Changeup 28%, Sinker 22%.
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026
Iglesias, Raisel
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team ATL
Archetype Offspeed mix artist
Age 36
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
90
Pitching
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.44 |
| ERA current pace | 2.23 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.00 |
| Observed weight | 37% |
ERA
1.54
2.23
3.00
3.76
4.45
FIP
1.96
2.39
2.86
3.33
3.76
K%
22.1%
24.7%
27.6%
30.5%
33.1%
BB%
4.0%
5.0%
6.2%
7.3%
8.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.12
78
ERA2.23
92
BB%5.0%
96
+23 vs proj
K%29.5%
91
+21 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.254
95
+27 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.4%
90
+35 vs proj
Fastball velo94.6
51
Hard-hit allowed31.1%
93
Whiff%28.0%
84
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Changeup Stuff+107
82
Fastball Stuff+103
57
Mithrandir Stuff+104
69
Sinker Stuff+103
63
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
40%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 44.6% | 127 | 103 | limited sample |
| CH | 36.1% | 103 | 107 | limited sample |
| SI | 16.1% | 46 | 103 | limited sample |
| SL | 3.2% | 9 | 96 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.20 |
| K% Δ | +0.041 |
| Sample | 34.7 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 40.7 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 160 | -- | -- |
| K% | 25.4% | 19.1% to 35.4% | +/- 8.1% |
| BB% | 7.2% | 4.5% to 10.8% | +/- 3.2% |
| Whiff% | 26.9% | 23.7% to 34.2% | +/- 5.3% |
| HR/9 | 1.02 | 0.43 to 1.72 | +/- 0.65 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.296 | 0.236 to 0.331 | +/- 0.047 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.5% | 3.5% to 10.7% | +/- 3.6% |
| ERA | 3.43 | 1.24 to 5.21 | +/- 1.98 |
| FIP | 3.44 | 2.42 to 4.87 | +/- 1.23 |
| WHIP | 1.090 | 0.809 to 1.459 | +/- 0.325 |
vs LHH
1474 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.248 |
| K% | 25.6% |
| BB% | 6.7% |
| Barrel | 6.0% |
vs RHH
1601 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.246 |
| K% | 26.7% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 6.9% |