Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

López, Reynaldo

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
26.5% K%
Range
21.6% to 35.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Volatile contact Age 32 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
34
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
40
Arsenal5 metrics
18
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.02
ERA current pace4.54
ERA rolling p503.96
Observed weight62%
ERA
2.79 3.34 3.96 4.57 5.12
FIP
3.01 3.50 4.05 4.59 5.09
K%
19.9% 21.4% 23.0% 24.7% 26.1%
BB%
7.6% 8.3% 9.1% 9.9% 10.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.47
25
ERA4.54
37
BB%9.9%
39 -21 vs proj
K%20.8%
42 -38 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.335
27
Barrel allowed7.6%
47
Fastball velo93.8
40
Hard-hit allowed35.5%
73
Whiff%20.5%
31 -36 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+103
56
Mithrandir Stuff+98
19
Slider Stuff+92
4
Changeup Stuff+90
4
Curveball Stuff+98
6
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 53%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed López, Reynaldo · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.335 2026-09-12: 0.3352026-09-13: 0.3352026-09-14: 0.3352026-09-18: 0.3352026-09-19: 0.3352026-09-20: 0.3352026-09-21: 0.3352026-09-22: 0.3352026-09-23: 0.3352026-09-24: 0.3352026-09-25: 0.3352026-09-26: 0.335 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile López, Reynaldo · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal López, Reynaldo · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 53.5%Slider: 30.7%Curveball: 11.3%Changeup: 4.5% FF53% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 53%SL 31%CU 11%CH 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal López, Reynaldo · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 53% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.8 mphFF94 mphSlider: 31% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 83.8 mphSL84 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 74.2 mphCU74 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 83.7 mphCH84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 53.0% 443 103 qualified
SL 32.9% 275 92 qualified
CB 10.4% 87 98 limited sample
CH 3.7% 31 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.298 vs 0.275 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Slider 36%, Curveball 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.53
K% Δ-0.056
Sample87.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.4----
Batters Faced277----
K%26.5%21.6% to 35.2%+/- 6.8%
BB%8.1%5.7% to 10.4%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%24.8%20.4% to 32.2%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.370.47 to 1.71+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3200.260 to 0.341+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed8.1%5.0% to 11.0%+/- 3.0%
ERA3.011.10 to 4.30+/- 1.60
FIP3.442.30 to 5.16+/- 1.43
WHIP1.2300.953 to 1.440+/- 0.243
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1806 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%25.4%
BB%9.0%
Barrel7.9%
vs RHH

1799 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%26.6%
BB%5.4%
Barrel7.2%