Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATL · 2026

López, Reynaldo

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
26.5% K%
Range
21.6% to 35.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Volatile contact Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-16
28
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
36
Arsenal5 metrics
18
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-16
ERA preseason3.02
ERA current pace4.06
ERA rolling p503.51
Observed weight47%
ERA
2.37 2.91 3.51 4.10 4.64
FIP
3.08 3.56 4.09 4.63 5.11
K%
19.5% 21.4% 23.5% 25.6% 27.5%
BB%
7.7% 8.5% 9.5% 10.5% 11.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.54
16
ERA4.06
45
BB%11.5%
22 -37 vs proj
K%20.1%
34 -45 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.344
22 -23 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.1%
56
Fastball velo93.5
34
Hard-hit allowed35.0%
75
Whiff%18.6%
16 -49 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-16
Fastball Stuff+103
55
Mithrandir Stuff+98
22
Slider Stuff+94
8
Changeup Stuff+92
5
Curveball Stuff+96
1
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 54%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed López, Reynaldo · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.344 2026-06-05: 0.3452026-06-06: 0.3452026-06-07: 0.3452026-06-08: 0.3452026-06-09: 0.3452026-06-10: 0.3452026-06-11: 0.3452026-06-12: 0.3452026-06-13: 0.3452026-06-14: 0.3452026-06-15: 0.3452026-06-16: 0.344 2026-06-05 2026-06-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile López, Reynaldo · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal López, Reynaldo · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 53.8%Slider: 32.1%Curveball: 9.8%Changeup: 4.4% FF54% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 54%SL 32%CU 10%CH 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal López, Reynaldo · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 54% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.5 mphFF93 mphSlider: 32% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 83.0 mphSL83 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 73.3 mphCU73 mphChangeup: 4% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 83.1 mphCH83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 54.1% 341 103 qualified
SL 33.0% 208 94 qualified
CB 9.0% 57 96 limited sample
CH 3.8% 24 92 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.298 vs 0.275 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Slider 36%, Curveball 12%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.06
K% Δ-0.064
Sample46.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.2----
Batters Faced276----
K%26.5%21.6% to 35.2%+/- 6.8%
BB%8.1%5.7% to 10.4%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%24.8%20.4% to 32.2%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.370.47 to 1.71+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3200.260 to 0.341+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed8.1%5.0% to 11.0%+/- 3.0%
ERA3.001.09 to 4.30+/- 1.60
FIP3.442.30 to 5.17+/- 1.44
WHIP1.2300.953 to 1.440+/- 0.243
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1806 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%25.4%
BB%9.0%
Barrel7.9%
vs RHH

1799 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%26.6%
BB%5.4%
Barrel7.2%