Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Herget, Jimmy

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.7% K%
Range
16.5% to 29.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Balanced reliever Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
22
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
26
Arsenal5 metrics
30
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.72
ERA current pace5.76
ERA rolling p504.77
Observed weight51%
ERA
3.34 4.02 4.77 5.52 6.20
FIP
3.46 4.02 4.65 5.27 5.83
K%
17.3% 19.0% 20.8% 22.6% 24.3%
BB%
7.0% 8.1% 9.3% 10.5% 11.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.60
12
ERA5.76
13
BB%11.0%
25 -44 vs proj
K%18.5%
25 -38 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.325
35 -32 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.9%
9 -28 vs proj
Fastball velo91.1
8
Hard-hit allowed38.5%
49
Whiff%23.2%
55
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Mithrandir Stuff+101
36
Slider Stuff+104
72
Changeup Stuff+87
3
Fastball Stuff+86
1
Sinker Stuff+101
39
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Herget, Jimmy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.325 2026-09-12: 0.3272026-09-13: 0.3272026-09-14: 0.3262026-09-18: 0.3262026-09-19: 0.3262026-09-20: 0.3262026-09-21: 0.3232026-09-22: 0.3232026-09-23: 0.3232026-09-24: 0.3232026-09-25: 0.3232026-09-26: 0.325 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Herget, Jimmy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Herget, Jimmy · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 32.5%Sweeper: 27.5%Sinker: 23.0%Changeup: 8.5%4-Seam Fastball: 8.5% SL33% · 86 mphprimary pitch SL 33%ST 28%SI 23%CH 8%FF 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Herget, Jimmy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 33% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 85.9 mphSL86 mphSweeper: 28% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 78.2 mphST78 mphSinker: 23% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 90.8 mphSI91 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 85.3 mphCH85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 8% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.0 mphFF92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 60.7% 370 104 qualified
SI 21.3% 130 101 limited sample
FB 9.2% 56 86 limited sample
CH 8.9% 54 87 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 31%, Slider 29%, Sinker 28%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.62
K% Δ-0.052
Sample55.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings37.1----
Batters Faced156----
K%23.7%16.5% to 29.2%+/- 6.4%
BB%7.6%4.8% to 12.4%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%24.6%19.8% to 29.8%+/- 5.0%
HR/91.330.42 to 2.11+/- 0.85
xwOBA Against0.3010.259 to 0.361+/- 0.051
Barrel% Allowed8.3%4.4% to 12.4%+/- 4.0%
ERA4.141.92 to 5.96+/- 2.02
FIP4.042.90 to 6.25+/- 1.68
WHIP1.2891.037 to 1.701+/- 0.332
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

429 career BF

xwOBA0.288
K%19.7%
BB%8.3%
Barrel8.6%
vs RHH

620 career BF

xwOBA0.274
K%21.6%
BB%5.6%
Barrel7.9%