Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Herget, Jimmy

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.7% K%
Range
16.5% to 29.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Balanced reliever Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
49
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
42
Arsenal5 metrics
34
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.72
ERA current pace3.60
ERA rolling p503.68
Observed weight34%
ERA
2.18 2.89 3.68 4.47 5.18
FIP
2.50 3.09 3.74 4.40 4.99
K%
18.0% 20.2% 22.5% 24.9% 27.0%
BB%
5.2% 6.5% 7.9% 9.4% 10.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.48
21
ERA3.60
59
BB%8.9%
45 -21 vs proj
K%21.1%
40 -18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.282
80 +16 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.7%
14 -26 vs proj
Fastball velo91.2
7
Hard-hit allowed41.7%
32
Whiff%27.3%
80 +19 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+79
1
Fastball Stuff+84
1
Mithrandir Stuff+102
47
Sinker Stuff+100
32
Slider Stuff+107
87
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Herget, Jimmy · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.282 2026-07-06: 0.2972026-07-07: 0.2922026-07-08: 0.2902026-07-09: 0.2902026-07-10: 0.2902026-07-11: 0.2902026-07-12: 0.2862026-07-13: 0.2862026-07-14: 0.2822026-07-15: 0.2822026-07-16: 0.2822026-07-17: 0.282 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Herget, Jimmy · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Herget, Jimmy · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 29.9%Slider: 29.0%Sinker: 25.6%4-Seam Fastball: 9.0%Changeup: 6.5% ST30% · 78 mphprimary pitch ST 30%SL 29%SI 26%FF 9%CH 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Herget, Jimmy · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 30% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 77.9 mphST78 mphSlider: 29% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 85.8 mphSL86 mphSinker: 26% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 90.9 mphSI91 mph4-Seam Fastball: 9% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.1 mphFF92 mphChangeup: 7% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.2 mphCH85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 59.8% 198 107 limited sample
SI 23.9% 79 100 limited sample
FB 9.4% 31 84 limited sample
CH 6.9% 23 79 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 31%, Slider 29%, Sinker 28%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.53
K% Δ-0.026
Sample27.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings37.6----
Batters Faced158----
K%23.7%16.5% to 29.2%+/- 6.4%
BB%7.6%4.8% to 12.4%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%24.6%19.8% to 29.8%+/- 5.0%
HR/91.330.42 to 2.11+/- 0.85
xwOBA Against0.3010.259 to 0.361+/- 0.051
Barrel% Allowed8.3%4.4% to 12.4%+/- 4.0%
ERA4.131.92 to 5.96+/- 2.02
FIP4.042.90 to 6.25+/- 1.68
WHIP1.2891.037 to 1.701+/- 0.332
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

429 career BF

xwOBA0.288
K%19.7%
BB%8.3%
Barrel8.6%
vs RHH

620 career BF

xwOBA0.274
K%21.6%
BB%5.6%
Barrel7.9%