Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Phillips, Evan

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
25.2% K%
Range
17.7% to 33.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
73
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
59
Arsenal5 metrics
97
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.20
ERA current pace3.68
ERA rolling p503.34
Observed weight29%
ERA
1.83 2.54 3.34 4.13 4.85
FIP
2.68 3.08 3.53 3.98 4.39
K%
21.2% 24.0% 27.0% 30.1% 32.8%
BB%
4.6% 5.9% 7.4% 8.9% 10.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.12
83
ERA3.68
63
BB%6.1%
89 +29 vs proj
K%30.3%
94 +22 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.325
35 -26 vs proj
Barrel allowed16.1%
1 -62 vs proj
Fastball velo96.8
86
Hard-hit allowed40.3%
35
Whiff%21.6%
43 -15 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Cutter Stuff+108
97
Fastball Stuff+110
97
Mithrandir Stuff+112
99
Sinker Stuff+120
100
Slider Stuff+108
92
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Phillips, Evan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.325 2026-09-12: 0.3362026-09-13: 0.3362026-09-14: 0.3362026-09-18: 0.3452026-09-19: 0.3452026-09-20: 0.3452026-09-21: 0.3352026-09-22: 0.3352026-09-23: 0.3352026-09-24: 0.3352026-09-25: 0.3352026-09-26: 0.325 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Phillips, Evan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Phillips, Evan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 45.7%Sweeper: 37.1%Cutter: 10.2%Sinker: 7.1% FF46% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 46%ST 37%FC 10%SI 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Phillips, Evan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 46% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.9 mphFF97 mphSweeper: 37% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 86.2 mphST86 mphCutter: 10% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 92.5 mphFC92 mphSinker: 7% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 96.7 mphSI97 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 45.5% 87 110 limited sample
SL 39.3% 75 108 limited sample
SI 7.9% 15 120 limited sample
FC 7.3% 14 108 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.275 vs 0.251 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 53%, 4-Seam Fastball 32%, Cutter 8%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.21
K% Δ+0.051
Sample24.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.7----
Batters Faced137----
K%25.2%17.7% to 33.3%+/- 7.8%
BB%8.2%4.2% to 11.8%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%23.6%18.3% to 31.9%+/- 6.8%
HR/91.130.23 to 1.87+/- 0.82
xwOBA Against0.3050.223 to 0.332+/- 0.055
Barrel% Allowed6.7%2.9% to 10.8%+/- 4.0%
ERA3.471.54 to 5.49+/- 1.97
FIP3.342.24 to 4.47+/- 1.11
WHIP1.1780.879 to 1.481+/- 0.301
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

514 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%21.7%
BB%7.6%
Barrel5.9%
vs RHH

641 career BF

xwOBA0.251
K%25.5%
BB%5.9%
Barrel5.8%