Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Anderson, Drew

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.6% K%
Range
6.1% to 22.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-15
57
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
59
Arsenal5 metrics
59
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-15
ERA preseason4.07
ERA current pace3.92
ERA rolling p504.00
Observed weight45%
ERA
1.88 2.89 4.00 5.12 6.12
FIP
1.65 2.59 3.64 4.69 5.63
K%
19.1% 21.5% 24.1% 26.7% 29.0%
BB%
6.2% 7.3% 8.7% 10.0% 11.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
39
ERA3.92
49
BB%10.6%
29 -16 vs proj
K%28.1%
86 +50 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.275
83
Barrel allowed6.7%
63 +16 vs proj
Fastball velo95.4
67
Hard-hit allowed41.2%
39
Whiff%27.1%
79 +54 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-15
Changeup Stuff+104
61
Fastball Stuff+103
53
Mithrandir Stuff+102
48
Curveball Stuff+101
38
Slider Stuff+110
94
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Anderson, Drew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.275 2026-06-04: 0.2812026-06-05: 0.2762026-06-06: 0.2752026-06-07: 0.2752026-06-08: 0.2732026-06-09: 0.2732026-06-10: 0.2732026-06-11: 0.2722026-06-12: 0.2722026-06-13: 0.2722026-06-14: 0.2752026-06-15: 0.275 2026-06-04 2026-06-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Anderson, Drew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Anderson, Drew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.7%Changeup: 31.6%Curveball: 22.1%Slider: 6.6% FF40% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 40%CH 32%CU 22%SL 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Anderson, Drew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 40% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.4 mphFF95 mphChangeup: 32% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 89.8 mphCH90 mphCurveball: 22% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 80.0 mphCU80 mphSlider: 7% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 87.2 mphSL87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 40.3% 269 103 qualified
CH 31.3% 209 104 qualified
CB 21.7% 145 101 limited sample
SL 6.6% 44 110 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.44
K% Δ+0.075
Sample45.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings31.9----
Batters Faced140----
K%20.6%6.1% to 22.8%+/- 8.4%
BB%9.2%1.3% to 9.3%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%19.9%5.3% to 26.8%+/- 10.7%
HR/91.200.00 to 1.59+/- 0.80
xwOBA Against0.2840.001 to 0.312+/- 0.155
Barrel% Allowed7.8%0.1% to 9.4%+/- 4.6%
ERA5.360.09 to 6.05+/- 2.98
FIP3.760.17 to 5.79+/- 2.81
WHIP1.4070.308 to 1.640+/- 0.666
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

105 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%7.9%
BB%3.2%
Barrel0.1%
vs RHH

124 career BF

xwOBA0.004
K%8.5%
BB%2.5%
Barrel0.1%