Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026

Sewald, Paul

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
24.0% K%
Range
17.8% to 34.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 36 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
78
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal3 metrics
81
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.03
ERA current pace4.24
ERA rolling p504.11
Observed weight38%
ERA
2.38 3.20 4.11 5.02 5.84
FIP
3.32 3.68 4.08 4.48 4.84
K%
19.9% 22.5% 25.4% 28.3% 30.9%
BB%
4.9% 6.1% 7.4% 8.8% 10.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.88
97
ERA4.24
43
BB%6.0%
87 +36 vs proj
K%26.8%
79 +18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.280
83 +16 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.3%
9 -19 vs proj
Fastball velo91.4
10
Hard-hit allowed39.2%
49
Whiff%23.6%
55
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+107
85
Mithrandir Stuff+107
90
Slider Stuff+104
68
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

2Pitches 2026Season 60%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sewald, Paul · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.280 2026-07-06: 0.2882026-07-07: 0.2882026-07-08: 0.2882026-07-09: 0.2882026-07-10: 0.2882026-07-11: 0.2812026-07-12: 0.2812026-07-13: 0.2812026-07-14: 0.2802026-07-15: 0.2802026-07-16: 0.2802026-07-17: 0.280 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sewald, Paul · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sewald, Paul · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 60.0%Sweeper: 40.0% FF60% · 91 mphprimary pitch FF 60%ST 40% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sewald, Paul · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 60% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 91.4 mphFF91 mphSweeper: 40% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 83.0 mphST83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 59.6% 218 107 qualified
SL 40.4% 148 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 58%, Sweeper 42%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.33
K% Δ+0.028
Sample37.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.6----
Batters Faced146----
K%24.0%17.8% to 34.7%+/- 8.4%
BB%8.5%5.1% to 12.7%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%22.7%17.6% to 31.0%+/- 6.7%
HR/91.300.56 to 2.41+/- 0.93
xwOBA Against0.2970.236 to 0.358+/- 0.061
Barrel% Allowed9.1%5.1% to 15.5%+/- 5.2%
ERA3.912.05 to 6.82+/- 2.38
FIP3.832.24 to 4.33+/- 1.05
WHIP1.2040.937 to 1.564+/- 0.313
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

763 career BF

xwOBA0.278
K%24.4%
BB%8.6%
Barrel11.0%
vs RHH

1023 career BF

xwOBA0.267
K%24.4%
BB%5.9%
Barrel11.3%