Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIL · 2026

Senzatela, Antonio

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.1% K%
Range
8.6% to 21.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIL Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
48
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
51
Arsenal7 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.61
ERA current pace4.20
ERA rolling p504.38
Observed weight57%
ERA
2.71 3.50 4.38 5.26 6.05
FIP
2.89 3.45 4.08 4.72 5.28
K%
14.3% 15.8% 17.6% 19.3% 20.8%
BB%
6.3% 7.1% 8.0% 8.8% 9.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.33
51
ERA4.20
46
BB%8.2%
59
K%19.0%
29 +18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.311
52 +22 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.1%
71 +38 vs proj
Fastball velo97.1
88
Hard-hit allowed40.4%
35
Whiff%20.0%
27
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Cutter Stuff+96
11
Fastball Stuff+110
97
Mithrandir Stuff+104
70
Changeup Stuff+107
83
Curveball Stuff+101
31
Sinker Stuff+106
81
Slider Stuff+92
4
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Senzatela, Antonio · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.311 2026-09-12: 0.3052026-09-13: 0.3052026-09-14: 0.3092026-09-18: 0.3082026-09-19: 0.3102026-09-20: 0.3102026-09-21: 0.3092026-09-22: 0.3092026-09-23: 0.3092026-09-24: 0.3092026-09-25: 0.3092026-09-26: 0.311 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Senzatela, Antonio · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Senzatela, Antonio · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 33.5%4-Seam Fastball: 30.7%Sinker: 21.0%Curveball: 8.4%Changeup: 4.5%Slider: 1.9% FC33% · 92 mphprimary pitch FC 33%FF 31%SI 21%CU 8%CH 4%SL 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Senzatela, Antonio · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Cutter: 33% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 92.3 mphFC92 mph4-Seam Fastball: 31% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 97.3 mphFF97 mphSinker: 21% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 96.8 mphSI97 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 83.5 mphCU84 mphChangeup: 4% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.8 mphCH91 mphSlider: 2% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.4 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 35.0% 303 96 qualified
FB 27.3% 236 110 qualified
SI 21.7% 188 106 limited sample
CB 8.8% 76 101 limited sample
CH 5.0% 43 107 limited sample
SL 2.2% 19 92 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.360 vs 0.340 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 57%, Slider 19%, Curveball 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.42
K% Δ+0.029
Sample74.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings69.0----
Batters Faced325----
K%16.1%8.6% to 21.9%+/- 6.6%
BB%7.4%4.8% to 10.4%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%18.9%14.3% to 23.4%+/- 4.6%
HR/91.520.62 to 2.27+/- 0.83
xwOBA Against0.3310.287 to 0.398+/- 0.056
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.8% to 11.9%+/- 3.1%
ERA4.622.47 to 7.16+/- 2.34
FIP4.473.56 to 6.92+/- 1.68
WHIP1.4581.167 to 1.879+/- 0.356
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1873 career BF

xwOBA0.360
K%9.6%
BB%7.2%
Barrel7.7%
vs RHH

1875 career BF

xwOBA0.340
K%12.1%
BB%6.5%
Barrel9.0%