Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Senzatela, Antonio

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.1% K%
Range
8.6% to 21.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.99
ERA current pace1.36
ERA rolling p503.71
Observed weight35%
ERA
1.84 2.73 3.71 4.70 5.58
FIP
2.87 3.45 4.11 4.76 5.35
K%
12.9% 15.0% 17.5% 19.9% 22.0%
BB%
5.3% 6.3% 7.4% 8.5% 9.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.9%
75
Barrel allowed5.4%
79 +40 vs proj
Fastball velo96.9
87
Hard-hit allowed37.6%
60
K%20.8%
38 +26 vs proj
Whiff%22.1%
43 +25 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.281
79 +67 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+107
85
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Senzatela, Antonio · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2692026-05-19: 0.2692026-05-21: 0.2692026-05-23: 0.2722026-05-24: 0.2722026-05-25: 0.2722026-05-26: 0.2722026-05-28: 0.2852026-05-29: 0.2812026-05-30: 0.2812026-05-31: 0.2812026-06-01: 0.281 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Senzatela, Antonio · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 42%42%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Senzatela, Antonio · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 35.4%Cutter: 31.5%Sinker: 12.6%Curveball: 9.3%Changeup: 7.8%Slider: 3.5% MIX FF 35%FC 31%SI 13%CU 9%CH 8%SL 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Senzatela, Antonio · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB 0.0, IVB 1.3FFFC: HB -0.0, IVB 2.1FCSI: HB 0.6, IVB 1.9SICU: HB 0.1, IVB 3.7CUCH: HB -0.1, IVB 2.2CHSL: HB -0.3, IVB 2.7SL horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 35.4% 156 110 limited sample
FC 31.7% 140 101 limited sample
SI 12.0% 53 109 limited sample
CB 9.5% 42 100 limited sample
CH 8.2% 36 110 limited sample
SL 3.2% 14 92 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.360 vs 0.340 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 57%, Slider 19%, Curveball 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-3.64
K% Δ+0.047
Sample35.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.3----
Batters Faced322----
K%16.1%8.6% to 21.9%+/- 6.6%
BB%7.4%4.8% to 10.4%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%18.9%14.3% to 23.4%+/- 4.6%
HR/91.570.63 to 2.34+/- 0.85
xwOBA Against0.3580.310 to 0.430+/- 0.060
Barrel% Allowed8.5%5.8% to 11.9%+/- 3.1%
ERA5.002.67 to 7.74+/- 2.54
FIP4.473.56 to 6.92+/- 1.68
WHIP1.5671.254 to 2.019+/- 0.383
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1873 career BF

xwOBA0.360
K%9.6%
BB%7.2%
Barrel7.7%
vs RHH

1875 career BF

xwOBA0.340
K%12.1%
BB%6.5%
Barrel9.0%