Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Domínguez, Seranthony

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
26.6% K%
Range
20.4% to 35.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Volatile contact Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
37
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
49
Arsenal5 metrics
30
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.59
ERA current pace4.41
ERA rolling p503.90
Observed weight38%
ERA
2.28 3.05 3.90 4.76 5.53
FIP
2.46 3.18 3.98 4.78 5.50
K%
22.7% 25.0% 27.6% 30.2% 32.6%
BB%
9.0% 10.5% 12.2% 13.8% 15.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.42
32
ERA4.41
39
BB%14.9%
5 -25 vs proj
K%29.1%
89
xwOBA allowed0.345
21 -47 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.8%
35
Fastball velo97.3
90
Hard-hit allowed40.0%
43
Whiff%28.0%
85
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Curveball Stuff+98
9
Fastball Stuff+98
24
Mithrandir Stuff+99
25
Sinker Stuff+106
81
Slider Stuff+95
12
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Domínguez, Seranthony · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.345 2026-07-05: 0.3492026-07-06: 0.3492026-07-07: 0.3492026-07-08: 0.3492026-07-09: 0.3542026-07-10: 0.3522026-07-11: 0.3522026-07-12: 0.3522026-07-13: 0.3522026-07-14: 0.3452026-07-15: 0.3452026-07-16: 0.345 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Domínguez, Seranthony · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Domínguez, Seranthony · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 37.9%Sweeper: 30.1%Sinker: 17.8%Split-Finger: 12.0%Curveball: 2.3% FF38% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 38%ST 30%SI 18%FS 12%CU 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Domínguez, Seranthony · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 38% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 97.2 mphFF97 mphSweeper: 30% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.2 mphST85 mphSinker: 18% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 97.5 mphSI98 mphSplit-Finger: 12% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.5 mphFS86 mphCurveball: 2% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 83.4 mphCU83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 39.3% 140 98 limited sample
SL 35.7% 127 95 limited sample
SI 21.9% 78 106 limited sample
CB 3.1% 11 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.297 vs 0.266 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Sweeper 22%, Split-Finger 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.66
K% Δ+0.024
Sample33.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.6----
Batters Faced177----
K%26.6%20.4% to 35.4%+/- 7.5%
BB%10.5%6.7% to 15.8%+/- 4.5%
Whiff%27.1%22.9% to 33.8%+/- 5.5%
HR/91.150.44 to 2.20+/- 0.88
xwOBA Against0.2960.235 to 0.343+/- 0.054
Barrel% Allowed8.2%4.7% to 13.0%+/- 4.2%
ERA3.751.67 to 6.13+/- 2.23
FIP3.812.29 to 6.47+/- 2.09
WHIP1.2810.949 to 1.717+/- 0.384
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

614 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%23.0%
BB%11.3%
Barrel9.8%
vs RHH

873 career BF

xwOBA0.266
K%27.9%
BB%10.9%
Barrel8.3%