Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Domínguez, Seranthony

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
26.6% K%
Range
20.4% to 35.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Volatile contact Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
56
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
65
Arsenal5 metrics
35
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.47
ERA current pace3.69
ERA rolling p503.58
Observed weight53%
ERA
2.06 2.78 3.58 4.39 5.11
FIP
2.60 3.30 4.08 4.86 5.56
K%
22.2% 24.0% 26.1% 28.2% 30.1%
BB%
9.0% 10.2% 11.5% 12.9% 14.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.29
58
ERA3.69
62
BB%12.4%
15 -16 vs proj
K%25.6%
74
xwOBA allowed0.295
73
Barrel allowed6.9%
59 +21 vs proj
Fastball velo97.4
90
Hard-hit allowed34.0%
82
Whiff%26.1%
76
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+101
43
Mithrandir Stuff+100
33
Slider Stuff+96
14
Curveball Stuff+98
10
Sinker Stuff+105
74
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Domínguez, Seranthony · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.295 2026-09-13: 0.3132026-09-14: 0.3112026-09-18: 0.3072026-09-19: 0.3042026-09-20: 0.3042026-09-21: 0.3002026-09-22: 0.3002026-09-23: 0.3002026-09-24: 0.2972026-09-25: 0.2972026-09-26: 0.2972026-09-27: 0.295 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Domínguez, Seranthony · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Domínguez, Seranthony · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 43.1%Sweeper: 27.9%Sinker: 16.4%Split-Finger: 11.3%Curveball: 1.3%Pitch Out: 0.1% FF43% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 43%ST 28%SI 16%FS 11%CU 1%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Domínguez, Seranthony · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 43% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 97.3 mphFF97 mphSweeper: 28% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.1 mphST85 mphSinker: 16% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 97.6 mphSI98 mphSplit-Finger: 11% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.9 mphFS86 mphCurveball: 1% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 83.4 mphCU83 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.4 mphPO93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 47.1% 314 101 qualified
SL 31.3% 209 96 qualified
SI 19.9% 133 105 limited sample
CB 1.6% 11 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.297 vs 0.266 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Sweeper 22%, Split-Finger 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.08
K% Δ-0.010
Sample62.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.3----
Batters Faced175----
K%26.6%20.4% to 35.4%+/- 7.5%
BB%10.5%6.7% to 15.8%+/- 4.5%
Whiff%27.1%22.9% to 33.8%+/- 5.5%
HR/91.120.43 to 2.15+/- 0.86
xwOBA Against0.2850.227 to 0.331+/- 0.052
Barrel% Allowed8.2%4.7% to 13.0%+/- 4.2%
ERA3.611.61 to 5.92+/- 2.15
FIP3.812.29 to 6.47+/- 2.09
WHIP1.2480.925 to 1.673+/- 0.374
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

614 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%23.0%
BB%11.3%
Barrel9.8%
vs RHH

873 career BF

xwOBA0.266
K%27.9%
BB%10.9%
Barrel8.3%