Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Castillo, Luis

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.7% K%
Range
18.3% to 29.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Balanced starter Age 34 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
32
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
33
Arsenal5 metrics
69
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.99
ERA current pace5.86
ERA rolling p505.34
Observed weight72%
ERA
4.20 4.74 5.34 5.95 6.49
FIP
4.06 4.39 4.76 5.13 5.46
K%
17.5% 18.5% 19.6% 20.7% 21.6%
BB%
5.9% 6.4% 7.0% 7.6% 8.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.50
23
ERA5.86
13
BB%7.3%
73
K%18.7%
28
xwOBA allowed0.341
21
Barrel allowed9.7%
17 -16 vs proj
Fastball velo95.2
63
Hard-hit allowed43.0%
19
Whiff%21.4%
41
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+106
78
Fastball Stuff+102
47
Mithrandir Stuff+104
71
Sinker Stuff+108
90
Slider Stuff+103
60
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Castillo, Luis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.341 2026-09-13: 0.3412026-09-14: 0.3412026-09-18: 0.3412026-09-19: 0.3412026-09-20: 0.3412026-09-21: 0.3402026-09-22: 0.3402026-09-23: 0.3412026-09-24: 0.3412026-09-25: 0.3412026-09-26: 0.3412026-09-27: 0.341 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Castillo, Luis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Castillo, Luis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 42.0%Slider: 24.4%Sinker: 18.7%Changeup: 14.6%Cutter: 0.2%Pitch Out: 0.0% FF42% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 42%SL 24%SI 19%CH 15%FC 0%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Castillo, Luis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 42% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 95.2 mphFF95 mphSlider: 24% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.5 mphSL85 mphSinker: 19% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 95.3 mphSI95 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 87.4 mphCH87 mphCutter: 0% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.6 mphFC92 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 89.4 mphPO89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 42.6% 671 102 qualified
SL 24.2% 382 103 qualified
SI 18.4% 290 108 qualified
CH 14.7% 232 106 qualified
FC 0.1% 1 111 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.320 vs 0.283 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 45%, Sinker 22%, Slider 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.79
K% Δ-0.020
Sample137.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings80.0----
Batters Faced333----
K%20.7%18.3% to 29.3%+/- 5.5%
BB%6.8%5.0% to 9.2%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%22.1%19.8% to 27.8%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.400.84 to 2.07+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3360.283 to 0.352+/- 0.034
Barrel% Allowed8.6%5.8% to 13.1%+/- 3.7%
ERA4.072.80 to 5.76+/- 1.48
FIP4.043.03 to 4.83+/- 0.90
WHIP1.3071.080 to 1.538+/- 0.229
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

3054 career BF

xwOBA0.320
K%19.5%
BB%7.9%
Barrel11.3%
vs RHH

3052 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%23.3%
BB%4.9%
Barrel8.9%