Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Castillo, Luis

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.7% K%
Range
18.3% to 29.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Balanced starter Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
42
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
38
Arsenal5 metrics
71
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.85
ERA current pace4.93
ERA rolling p504.54
Observed weight64%
ERA
3.49 3.99 4.54 5.09 5.59
FIP
3.50 3.81 4.16 4.51 4.82
K%
18.3% 19.5% 20.8% 22.2% 23.4%
BB%
5.5% 6.1% 6.8% 7.4% 8.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
39
ERA4.93
27
BB%7.0%
76
K%20.3%
35
xwOBA allowed0.328
35
Barrel allowed9.6%
24
Fastball velo95.3
65
Hard-hit allowed45.0%
13
Whiff%20.6%
31
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+102
43
Mithrandir Stuff+105
72
Sinker Stuff+106
85
Slider Stuff+105
74
Changeup Stuff+107
81
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Castillo, Luis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.328 2026-07-05: 0.3292026-07-06: 0.3292026-07-07: 0.3292026-07-08: 0.3292026-07-09: 0.3292026-07-10: 0.3292026-07-11: 0.3292026-07-12: 0.3282026-07-13: 0.3282026-07-14: 0.3282026-07-15: 0.3282026-07-16: 0.328 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Castillo, Luis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 57%57%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Castillo, Luis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 43.6%Slider: 27.1%Sinker: 16.4%Changeup: 12.5%Cutter: 0.3%Pitch Out: 0.1% FF44% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 44%SL 27%SI 16%CH 12%FC 0%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Castillo, Luis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 95.2 mphFF95 mphSlider: 27% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.3 mphSL85 mphSinker: 16% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 95.4 mphSI95 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 87.5 mphCH87 mphCutter: 0% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.6 mphFC92 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 89.4 mphPO89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.5% 545 102 qualified
SL 25.5% 313 105 qualified
SI 16.7% 205 106 qualified
CH 13.2% 162 107 limited sample
FC 0.1% 1 112 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.320 vs 0.283 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 45%, Sinker 22%, Slider 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.00
K% Δ-0.004
Sample95.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings78.9----
Batters Faced328----
K%20.7%18.3% to 29.3%+/- 5.5%
BB%6.8%5.0% to 9.2%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%22.1%19.8% to 27.8%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.360.82 to 2.02+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3240.273 to 0.340+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed8.6%5.8% to 13.1%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.932.69 to 5.56+/- 1.43
FIP4.043.03 to 4.83+/- 0.90
WHIP1.2741.052 to 1.499+/- 0.223
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

3054 career BF

xwOBA0.320
K%19.5%
BB%7.9%
Barrel11.3%
vs RHH

3052 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%23.3%
BB%4.9%
Barrel8.9%