Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Minter, A.j.

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.4% K%
Range
18.9% to 32.7%
Live Δ
--
Team NYM Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.46
ERA current pace0.00
ERA rolling p503.36
Observed weight3%
ERA
1.38 2.32 3.36 4.40 5.34
FIP
2.71 3.20 3.75 4.30 4.80
K%
19.7% 22.9% 26.5% 30.0% 33.2%
BB%
4.2% 6.1% 8.1% 10.2% 12.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+101
45
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2025Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Minter, A.j. · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 30%30%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 47%47%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 71%71%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2025
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Minter, A.j. · 2025 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 47.9%4-Seam Fastball: 41.9%Changeup: 10.2% MIX FC 48%FF 42%CH 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Minter, A.j. · 2025 arsenal snapshot FC: HB 0.0, IVB 2.4FCFF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.1FFCH: HB -1.2, IVB 2.6CH horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 50.0% 8 107 limited sample
FB 43.8% 7 93 limited sample
CH 6.2% 1 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.240 vs 0.261 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 48%, 4-Seam Fastball 42%, Changeup 10%.
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.0----
Batters Faced141----
K%25.4%18.9% to 32.7%+/- 6.9%
BB%8.9%5.1% to 13.2%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%26.2%20.4% to 34.6%+/- 7.1%
HR/91.260.66 to 2.16+/- 0.75
xwOBA Against0.3060.233 to 0.354+/- 0.060
Barrel% Allowed8.3%4.4% to 12.3%+/- 4.0%
ERA3.731.23 to 5.31+/- 2.04
FIP3.812.58 to 4.73+/- 1.08
WHIP1.2060.932 to 1.462+/- 0.265
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

592 career BF

xwOBA0.240
K%25.7%
BB%7.0%
Barrel7.5%
vs RHH

1067 career BF

xwOBA0.261
K%23.8%
BB%7.9%
Barrel8.5%