Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Alvarado, José

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
25.3% K%
Range
19.7% to 34.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
42
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
63
Arsenal3 metrics
39
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.68
ERA current pace6.82
ERA rolling p505.00
Observed weight42%
ERA
3.37 4.14 5.00 5.86 6.63
FIP
2.67 3.12 3.63 4.13 4.58
K%
22.0% 24.3% 26.8% 29.3% 31.5%
BB%
6.3% 7.5% 8.9% 10.2% 11.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.73
5
ERA6.82
5
BB%8.6%
51
K%28.0%
84
xwOBA allowed0.300
65
Barrel allowed3.9%
93 +46 vs proj
Fastball velo98.2
95
Hard-hit allowed31.4%
93
Whiff%26.7%
76
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Sinker Stuff+105
74
Cutter Stuff+88
1
Mithrandir Stuff+101
41
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 63%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Alvarado, José · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.300 2026-07-06: 0.3042026-07-07: 0.3042026-07-08: 0.3042026-07-09: 0.3042026-07-10: 0.3052026-07-11: 0.3052026-07-12: 0.3052026-07-13: 0.3052026-07-14: 0.3012026-07-15: 0.3012026-07-16: 0.3002026-07-17: 0.300 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Alvarado, José · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 31%31% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alvarado, José · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 63.0%Cutter: 33.9%Curveball: 1.8%4-Seam Fastball: 1.3% SI63% · 98 mphprimary pitch SI 63%FC 34%CU 2%FF 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alvarado, José · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 63% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 98.2 mphSI98 mphCutter: 34% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 91.9 mphFC92 mphCurveball: 2% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 85.1 mphCU85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 1% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 97.6 mphFF98 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 61.8% 299 105 qualified
FC 34.9% 169 88 limited sample
CB 1.7% 8 106 limited sample
FB 1.7% 8 91 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.266 vs 0.297 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 63%, Cutter 29%, Curveball 5%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+3.39
K% Δ+0.027
Sample35.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings36.2----
Batters Faced153----
K%25.3%19.7% to 34.8%+/- 7.6%
BB%9.5%5.8% to 13.8%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%25.6%20.0% to 31.8%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.200.52 to 2.02+/- 0.75
xwOBA Against0.3090.240 to 0.366+/- 0.063
Barrel% Allowed7.8%3.7% to 11.8%+/- 4.0%
ERA3.431.79 to 6.36+/- 2.28
FIP3.502.57 to 5.23+/- 1.33
WHIP1.2750.972 to 1.614+/- 0.321
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

557 career BF

xwOBA0.266
K%25.0%
BB%7.5%
Barrel6.2%
vs RHH

1199 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%24.4%
BB%9.3%
Barrel8.3%