Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / PHI · 2026

Alvarado, José

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
25.3% K%
Range
19.7% to 34.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 31 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
35
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
56
Arsenal5 metrics
35
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.68
ERA current pace5.43
ERA rolling p504.63
Observed weight54%
ERA
3.01 3.78 4.63 5.48 6.25
FIP
2.86 3.31 3.80 4.30 4.75
K%
21.6% 23.4% 25.5% 27.5% 29.3%
BB%
8.0% 9.0% 10.2% 11.4% 12.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.65
10
ERA5.43
18
BB%11.1%
24 -19 vs proj
K%25.1%
71
xwOBA allowed0.312
51
Barrel allowed4.1%
93 +49 vs proj
Fastball velo97.8
93
Hard-hit allowed33.7%
84
Whiff%24.4%
63
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Cutter Stuff+88
1
Mithrandir Stuff+101
37
Sinker Stuff+104
68
Curveball Stuff+103
66
Fastball Stuff+90
3
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 63%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Alvarado, José · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.312 2026-09-13: 0.3032026-09-14: 0.3052026-09-18: 0.3072026-09-19: 0.3072026-09-20: 0.3072026-09-21: 0.3062026-09-22: 0.3062026-09-23: 0.3062026-09-24: 0.3062026-09-25: 0.3062026-09-26: 0.3082026-09-27: 0.312 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Alvarado, José · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 41%41%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alvarado, José · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 63.2%Cutter: 32.5%Curveball: 2.5%4-Seam Fastball: 1.9% SI63% · 98 mphprimary pitch SI 63%FC 32%CU 2%FF 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Alvarado, José · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 63% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 97.9 mphSI98 mphCutter: 32% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 91.5 mphFC91 mphCurveball: 2% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 84.7 mphCU85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 2% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 97.2 mphFF97 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 63.1% 438 104 qualified
FC 33.6% 233 88 qualified
CB 1.9% 13 103 limited sample
FB 1.4% 10 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.266 vs 0.297 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 63%, Cutter 29%, Curveball 5%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.00
K% Δ-0.002
Sample60.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings35.7----
Batters Faced151----
K%25.3%19.7% to 34.8%+/- 7.6%
BB%9.5%5.8% to 13.8%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%25.6%20.0% to 31.8%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.200.52 to 2.02+/- 0.75
xwOBA Against0.3090.240 to 0.366+/- 0.063
Barrel% Allowed7.8%3.7% to 11.8%+/- 4.0%
ERA3.431.79 to 6.36+/- 2.28
FIP3.502.57 to 5.23+/- 1.33
WHIP1.2740.972 to 1.614+/- 0.321
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

557 career BF

xwOBA0.266
K%25.0%
BB%7.5%
Barrel6.2%
vs RHH

1199 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%24.4%
BB%9.3%
Barrel8.3%