Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / HOU · 2026

McCullers Jr.., Lance

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.3% K%
Range
14.0% to 25.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team HOU Archetype Volatile contact Age 33 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-15
24
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
26
Arsenal7 metrics
30
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-15
ERA preseason4.81
ERA current pace6.86
ERA rolling p505.71
Observed weight44%
ERA
4.47 5.06 5.71 6.37 6.96
FIP
3.80 4.22 4.68 5.14 5.56
K%
17.5% 19.2% 21.1% 23.0% 24.7%
BB%
8.9% 9.9% 11.0% 12.1% 13.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.53
16
ERA6.86
4
BB%13.2%
12 -28 vs proj
K%23.3%
54 +33 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.330
34
Barrel allowed8.6%
38
Fastball velo91.5
11
Hard-hit allowed49.1%
4
Whiff%24.1%
58 +31 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-15
Mithrandir Stuff+99
30
Changeup Stuff+100
33
Curveball Stuff+100
18
Cutter Stuff+100
29
Fastball Stuff+90
4
Sinker Stuff+104
66
Slider Stuff+99
33
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed McCullers Jr.., Lance · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.330 2026-06-04: 0.3302026-06-05: 0.3302026-06-06: 0.3302026-06-07: 0.3302026-06-08: 0.3302026-06-09: 0.3302026-06-10: 0.3302026-06-11: 0.3302026-06-12: 0.3302026-06-13: 0.3302026-06-14: 0.3302026-06-15: 0.330 2026-06-04 2026-06-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile McCullers Jr.., Lance · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 41%41%Hard hit allowed: 49%49% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McCullers Jr.., Lance · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 27.2%Sinker: 22.5%Sweeper: 16.2%Knuckle Curve: 14.9%Changeup: 14.5%4-Seam Fastball: 4.8% FC27% · 89 mphprimary pitch FC 27%SI 23%ST 16%KC 15%CH 14%FF 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McCullers Jr.., Lance · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 27% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 89.1 mphFC89 mphSinker: 23% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 91.4 mphSI91 mphSweeper: 16% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 82.3 mphST82 mphKnuckle Curve: 15% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 81.6 mphKC82 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.6 mphCH86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 5% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 91.8 mphFF92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 27.1% 188 100 limited sample
SI 22.7% 158 104 limited sample
SL 16.7% 116 99 limited sample
CB 15.5% 108 100 limited sample
CH 13.7% 95 100 limited sample
FB 4.3% 30 90 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 32%, Sinker 25%, Changeup 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.09
K% Δ+0.050
Sample43.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.6----
Batters Faced324----
K%18.3%14.0% to 25.4%+/- 5.7%
BB%9.5%7.4% to 13.2%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%20.2%17.2% to 25.8%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.480.64 to 2.14+/- 0.75
xwOBA Against0.3310.267 to 0.344+/- 0.039
Barrel% Allowed8.6%5.9% to 11.8%+/- 2.9%
ERA4.773.03 to 6.54+/- 1.75
FIP4.563.17 to 5.65+/- 1.24
WHIP1.3971.146 to 1.742+/- 0.298
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1732 career BF

xwOBA0.258
K%16.0%
BB%11.0%
Barrel7.9%
vs RHH

1872 career BF

xwOBA0.255
K%16.3%
BB%8.8%
Barrel8.4%