Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Buehler, Walker

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.9% K%
Range
13.3% to 23.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Volatile contact Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.56
ERA current pace4.88
ERA rolling p504.73
Observed weight52%
ERA
3.59 4.13 4.73 5.32 5.86
FIP
3.71 4.08 4.48 4.89 5.26
K%
16.3% 17.7% 19.2% 20.7% 22.1%
BB%
6.7% 7.4% 8.3% 9.1% 9.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.0%
62
Barrel allowed7.1%
60 +24 vs proj
Fastball velo93.7
37
Hard-hit allowed41.0%
40
K%20.2%
33 +19 vs proj
Whiff%18.7%
17
xwOBA allowed0.340
26
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+99
30
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 23%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Buehler, Walker · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3452026-05-19: 0.3452026-05-21: 0.3452026-05-23: 0.3402026-05-24: 0.3402026-05-25: 0.3392026-05-26: 0.3392026-05-28: 0.3402026-05-29: 0.3402026-05-30: 0.3402026-05-31: 0.3402026-06-01: 0.340 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Buehler, Walker · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 56%56%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Buehler, Walker · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 22.8%4-Seam Fastball: 19.9%Sinker: 14.9%Knuckle Curve: 14.0%Changeup: 10.7%Slider: 9.5% MIX FC 23%FF 20%SI 15%KC 14%CH 11%SL 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Buehler, Walker · 2026 arsenal snapshot FC: HB 0.1, IVB 2.0FCFF: HB -0.0, IVB 1.3FFSI: HB 0.3, IVB 1.5SIKC: HB 0.4, IVB 5.0KCCH: HB -0.8, IVB 2.4CHSL: HB -0.5, IVB 2.7SLST: HB -0.8, IVB 2.9ST horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 24.3% 211 100 qualified
FB 19.2% 167 102 limited sample
SI 16.9% 147 102 limited sample
SL 16.9% 147 97 limited sample
CB 13.7% 119 100 limited sample
CH 8.9% 77 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 25%, Cutter 17%, Sinker 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.04
K% Δ+0.033
Sample58.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings71.2----
Batters Faced320----
K%16.9%13.3% to 23.2%+/- 4.9%
BB%8.7%6.5% to 11.5%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%18.2%15.9% to 23.7%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.570.85 to 2.31+/- 0.73
xwOBA Against0.3330.288 to 0.359+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.7%6.3% to 11.7%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.923.12 to 6.34+/- 1.61
FIP4.963.77 to 5.96+/- 1.10
WHIP1.3951.146 to 1.659+/- 0.256
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2039 career BF

xwOBA0.324
K%14.7%
BB%9.5%
Barrel8.1%
vs RHH

1929 career BF

xwOBA0.307
K%16.3%
BB%7.9%
Barrel8.6%