Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Buehler, Walker

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.9% K%
Range
13.3% to 23.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Volatile contact Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
32
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
32
Arsenal7 metrics
32
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.56
ERA current pace5.36
ERA rolling p505.07
Observed weight64%
ERA
3.89 4.45 5.07 5.69 6.25
FIP
3.89 4.27 4.70 5.12 5.50
K%
17.7% 18.8% 20.1% 21.3% 22.5%
BB%
7.3% 8.0% 8.7% 9.5% 10.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.52
16
ERA5.36
18
BB%8.8%
47
K%21.1%
40 +27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.327
37
Barrel allowed8.8%
34
Fastball velo93.9
42
Hard-hit allowed41.7%
32
Whiff%19.8%
24
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Cutter Stuff+102
53
Fastball Stuff+102
46
Mithrandir Stuff+100
33
Slider Stuff+97
22
Changeup Stuff+94
9
Curveball Stuff+100
24
Sinker Stuff+101
36
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 23%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Buehler, Walker · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.327 2026-07-05: 0.3242026-07-06: 0.3242026-07-07: 0.3242026-07-08: 0.3242026-07-09: 0.3242026-07-10: 0.3262026-07-11: 0.3262026-07-12: 0.3262026-07-13: 0.3272026-07-14: 0.3272026-07-15: 0.3272026-07-16: 0.327 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Buehler, Walker · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Buehler, Walker · 2026 arsenal snapshot Cutter: 22.9%4-Seam Fastball: 21.3%Sinker: 16.2%Knuckle Curve: 11.0%Slider: 10.4%Changeup: 10.3% FC23% · 90 mphprimary pitch FC 23%FF 21%SI 16%KC 11%SL 10%CH 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Buehler, Walker · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Cutter: 23% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.1 mphFC90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 21% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.9 mphFF94 mphSinker: 16% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 94.0 mphSI94 mphKnuckle Curve: 11% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 77.9 mphKC78 mphSlider: 10% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.0 mphSL87 mphChangeup: 10% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 88.8 mphCH89 mphSweeper: 8% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 82.6 mphST83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FC 23.1% 257 102 qualified
FB 20.4% 227 102 qualified
SL 18.4% 205 97 qualified
SI 16.4% 183 101 limited sample
CB 11.8% 132 100 limited sample
CH 9.9% 110 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 25%, Cutter 17%, Sinker 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.44
K% Δ+0.042
Sample95.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings70.9----
Batters Faced319----
K%16.9%13.3% to 23.2%+/- 4.9%
BB%8.7%6.5% to 11.5%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%18.2%15.9% to 23.7%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.570.85 to 2.31+/- 0.73
xwOBA Against0.3330.288 to 0.359+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.7%6.3% to 11.7%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.923.12 to 6.34+/- 1.61
FIP4.963.77 to 5.96+/- 1.10
WHIP1.3951.146 to 1.659+/- 0.256
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2039 career BF

xwOBA0.324
K%14.7%
BB%9.5%
Barrel8.1%
vs RHH

1929 career BF

xwOBA0.307
K%16.3%
BB%7.9%
Barrel8.6%