Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / DET · 2026

Waguespack, Jacob

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.4% K%
Range
14.6% to 27.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team DET Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
67
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
66
Arsenal5 metrics
31
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.93
ERA current pace2.59
ERA rolling p503.35
Observed weight43%
ERA
1.94 2.61 3.35 4.09 4.76
FIP
3.11 3.71 4.38 5.04 5.64
K%
15.2% 17.2% 19.3% 21.4% 23.4%
BB%
6.7% 8.0% 9.4% 10.9% 12.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.92
97
ERA2.59
90
BB%10.4%
32
K%18.6%
25 -19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.268
89
Barrel allowed5.5%
81 +29 vs proj
Fastball velo92.9
25
Hard-hit allowed29.1%
97
Whiff%23.3%
56 -23 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+94
13
Curveball Stuff+103
52
Cutter Stuff+98
18
Fastball Stuff+102
49
Mithrandir Stuff+99
24
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Waguespack, Jacob · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.268 2026-09-12: 0.2842026-09-13: 0.2842026-09-14: 0.2842026-09-18: 0.2722026-09-19: 0.2722026-09-20: 0.2722026-09-21: 0.2702026-09-22: 0.2702026-09-23: 0.2702026-09-24: 0.2682026-09-25: 0.2682026-09-26: 0.268 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Waguespack, Jacob · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 29%29% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Waguespack, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.9%Cutter: 32.7%Changeup: 19.4%Curveball: 6.0% FF42% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 42%FC 33%CH 19%CU 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Waguespack, Jacob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 42% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 92.9 mphFF93 mphCutter: 33% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.8 mphFC87 mphChangeup: 19% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 84.5 mphCH84 mphCurveball: 6% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 76.4 mphCU76 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 41.7% 154 102 limited sample
FC 33.1% 122 98 limited sample
CH 18.4% 68 94 limited sample
CB 6.8% 25 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 46%, 4-Seam Fastball 35%, Changeup 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.10
K% Δ-0.028
Sample46.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings29.1----
Batters Faced128----
K%21.4%14.6% to 27.8%+/- 6.6%
BB%9.4%5.2% to 13.7%+/- 4.3%
Whiff%26.5%20.3% to 35.3%+/- 7.5%
HR/91.240.41 to 1.89+/- 0.74
xwOBA Against0.2850.186 to 0.356+/- 0.085
Barrel% Allowed7.4%1.6% to 11.4%+/- 4.9%
ERA3.692.04 to 5.99+/- 1.97
FIP3.562.18 to 5.72+/- 1.77
WHIP1.2730.885 to 1.639+/- 0.377
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

229 career BF

xwOBA0.209
K%16.9%
BB%9.5%
Barrel4.6%
vs RHH

280 career BF

xwOBA0.198
K%18.0%
BB%7.4%
Barrel4.6%