Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Rucker, Michael

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.1% K%
Range
13.3% to 24.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Balanced reliever Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
50
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal5 metrics
71
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.69
ERA current pace6.18
ERA rolling p504.77
Observed weight43%
ERA
3.31 4.00 4.77 5.54 6.23
FIP
2.70 3.28 3.93 4.58 5.16
K%
19.0% 20.8% 22.7% 24.7% 26.4%
BB%
6.1% 7.3% 8.6% 9.9% 11.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.26
62
ERA6.18
9
BB%8.7%
52
K%26.1%
78 +28 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.310
52 -17 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.5%
34
Fastball velo96.1
76
Hard-hit allowed34.7%
77
Whiff%23.9%
59
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Curveball Stuff+105
93
Cutter Stuff+101
49
Fastball Stuff+101
41
Mithrandir Stuff+105
78
Sinker Stuff+110
94
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rucker, Michael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.310 2026-09-12: 0.3152026-09-13: 0.3122026-09-14: 0.3122026-09-18: 0.3122026-09-19: 0.3122026-09-20: 0.3122026-09-21: 0.3122026-09-22: 0.3122026-09-23: 0.3132026-09-24: 0.3132026-09-25: 0.3132026-09-26: 0.310 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rucker, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rucker, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 32.9%Curveball: 30.7%Cutter: 21.8%Sinker: 12.4%Slider: 1.5%Changeup: 0.7% FF33% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 33%CU 31%FC 22%SI 12%SL 1%CH 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rucker, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.2 mphFF96 mphCurveball: 31% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 51″ drop, 82.3 mphCU82 mphCutter: 22% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 89.7 mphFC90 mphSinker: 12% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 95.8 mphSI96 mphSlider: 1% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 86.3 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 1% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 91.6 mphCH92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 31.1% 98 101 limited sample
CB 30.2% 95 105 limited sample
FC 20.0% 63 101 limited sample
SI 17.1% 54 110 limited sample
SL 1.3% 4 101 limited sample
CH 0.3% 1 120 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.62
K% Δ+0.039
Sample43.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings33.6----
Batters Faced145----
K%22.1%13.3% to 24.8%+/- 5.7%
BB%8.8%5.0% to 12.7%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%23.9%14.9% to 25.4%+/- 5.2%
HR/91.480.42 to 2.39+/- 0.99
xwOBA Against0.2980.221 to 0.342+/- 0.060
Barrel% Allowed7.9%4.2% to 11.3%+/- 3.6%
ERA3.562.28 to 6.37+/- 2.05
FIP4.102.67 to 6.13+/- 1.73
WHIP1.2710.909 to 1.505+/- 0.298
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

259 career BF

xwOBA0.216
K%13.6%
BB%8.5%
Barrel6.5%
vs RHH

328 career BF

xwOBA0.205
K%14.4%
BB%6.5%
Barrel6.3%