Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Quantrill, Cal

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.4% K%
Range
13.0% to 22.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Volatile contact Age 31 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
71
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
58
Arsenal6 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.81
ERA current pace2.86
ERA rolling p503.54
Observed weight65%
ERA
2.29 2.88 3.54 4.20 4.79
FIP
3.55 3.86 4.20 4.54 4.85
K%
16.2% 17.2% 18.4% 19.5% 20.6%
BB%
5.2% 5.7% 6.4% 7.0% 7.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.03
91
ERA2.86
85
BB%5.6%
92 +30 vs proj
K%18.6%
26
xwOBA allowed0.303
63 +32 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.3%
53 +25 vs proj
Fastball velo93.9
41
Hard-hit allowed36.6%
65
Whiff%16.9%
8
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Mithrandir Stuff+104
67
Sinker Stuff+105
69
Curveball Stuff+101
29
Cutter Stuff+101
46
Fastball Stuff+105
69
Slider Stuff+103
63
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 25%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Quantrill, Cal · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.303 2026-09-13: 0.3052026-09-14: 0.3052026-09-18: 0.3052026-09-19: 0.3052026-09-20: 0.3052026-09-21: 0.3032026-09-22: 0.3032026-09-23: 0.3032026-09-24: 0.3032026-09-25: 0.3032026-09-26: 0.3032026-09-27: 0.303 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Quantrill, Cal · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Quantrill, Cal · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 25.1%4-Seam Fastball: 24.6%Split-Finger: 22.7%Cutter: 19.8%Curveball: 4.3%Slider: 3.6% SI25% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 25%FF 25%FS 23%FC 20%CU 4%SL 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Quantrill, Cal · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 25% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 94.0 mphSI94 mph4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.8 mphFF94 mphSplit-Finger: 23% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 84.6 mphFS85 mphCutter: 20% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 88.7 mphFC89 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 79.2 mphCU79 mphSlider: 4% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.9 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 35.9% 229 105 qualified
FB 30.8% 196 105 limited sample
FC 24.3% 155 101 limited sample
CB 4.9% 31 101 limited sample
SL 4.1% 26 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Cutter 22%, Sinker 22%, Split-Finger 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.13
K% Δ+0.012
Sample110.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings140.3----
Batters Faced625----
K%17.4%13.0% to 22.0%+/- 4.5%
BB%8.0%5.8% to 10.4%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%18.9%16.1% to 23.5%+/- 3.7%
HR/91.660.84 to 2.35+/- 0.76
xwOBA Against0.3300.291 to 0.361+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.8%6.4% to 12.3%+/- 3.0%
ERA4.993.36 to 6.75+/- 1.70
FIP5.023.70 to 5.46+/- 0.88
WHIP1.3911.155 to 1.686+/- 0.265
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1859 career BF

xwOBA0.332
K%15.8%
BB%9.7%
Barrel9.5%
vs RHH

1967 career BF

xwOBA0.325
K%14.4%
BB%6.0%
Barrel8.8%