Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 43%, Sinker 23%, Changeup 22%.
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026
Suter, Brent
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team LAA
Archetype Offspeed mix artist
Age 37
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.44 |
| ERA current pace | 4.20 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 4.35 |
| Observed weight | 39% |
ERA
3.15
3.72
4.35
4.98
5.54
FIP
3.67
4.03
4.43
4.83
5.19
K%
15.6%
17.3%
19.2%
21.1%
22.8%
BB%
5.5%
6.5%
7.5%
8.6%
9.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.9%
35
-49 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.8%
64
Fastball velo87.6
2
Hard-hit allowed31.1%
91
K%21.1%
40
+27 vs proj
Whiff%20.6%
29
+19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.300
64
+23 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+98
22
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
30%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CH | 31.0% | 158 | 99 | limited sample |
| FB | 28.3% | 144 | 98 | limited sample |
| SI | 24.0% | 122 | 102 | limited sample |
| SL | 16.7% | 85 | 98 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -0.29 |
| K% Δ | +0.047 |
| Sample | 34.7 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 67.8 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 293 | -- | -- |
| K% | 16.4% | 13.0% to 23.3% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 6.2% | 3.7% to 9.0% | +/- 2.7% |
| Whiff% | 17.4% | 15.3% to 23.6% | +/- 4.1% |
| HR/9 | 1.50 | 0.82 to 2.03 | +/- 0.60 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.326 | 0.277 to 0.361 | +/- 0.042 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.4% | 4.5% to 9.5% | +/- 2.5% |
| ERA | 4.49 | 3.09 to 6.38 | +/- 1.65 |
| FIP | 4.61 | 3.08 to 5.18 | +/- 1.05 |
| WHIP | 1.326 | 1.084 to 1.669 | +/- 0.292 |
vs LHH
835 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.294 |
| K% | 17.0% |
| BB% | 4.9% |
| Barrel | 6.2% |
vs RHH
1766 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.306 |
| K% | 16.4% |
| BB% | 5.7% |
| Barrel | 6.2% |