Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Wacha, Michael

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.8% K%
Range
15.3% to 23.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Balanced starter Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
65
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
53
Arsenal7 metrics
59
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.49
ERA current pace3.34
ERA rolling p503.60
Observed weight77%
ERA
2.57 3.06 3.60 4.14 4.63
FIP
3.71 4.02 4.37 4.71 5.02
K%
17.8% 18.6% 19.4% 20.3% 21.1%
BB%
6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.15
80
ERA3.34
74
BB%6.9%
78
K%19.8%
34
xwOBA allowed0.307
58 +41 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.5%
48 +15 vs proj
Fastball velo93.1
28
Hard-hit allowed37.6%
56
Whiff%19.4%
23
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+108
92
Cutter Stuff+103
63
Fastball Stuff+103
55
Mithrandir Stuff+103
63
Sinker Stuff+100
34
Curveball Stuff+102
47
Slider Stuff+103
59
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Wacha, Michael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.307 2026-09-12: 0.3042026-09-13: 0.3042026-09-14: 0.3042026-09-18: 0.3052026-09-19: 0.3052026-09-20: 0.3052026-09-21: 0.3072026-09-22: 0.3072026-09-23: 0.3072026-09-24: 0.3072026-09-25: 0.3072026-09-26: 0.307 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Wacha, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wacha, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 27.3%Changeup: 24.6%Cutter: 15.0%Sinker: 14.3%Curveball: 9.8%Slider: 9.1% FF27% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 27%CH 25%FC 15%SI 14%CU 10%SL 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wacha, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 27% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.1 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 25% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 80.6 mphCH81 mphCutter: 15% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.4 mphFC89 mphSinker: 14% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.2 mphSI93 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 75.9 mphCU76 mphSlider: 9% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.8 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 28.0% 545 103 qualified
CH 24.4% 475 108 qualified
FC 14.9% 289 103 qualified
SI 13.9% 270 100 qualified
CB 9.4% 183 102 limited sample
SL 9.4% 182 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 27%, Changeup 25%, Cutter 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.02
K% Δ+0.019
Sample200.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings144.1----
Batters Faced599----
K%17.8%15.3% to 23.8%+/- 4.3%
BB%6.7%5.2% to 9.1%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%19.4%16.9% to 23.9%+/- 3.5%
HR/91.370.75 to 1.93+/- 0.59
xwOBA Against0.3450.290 to 0.356+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.6% to 11.8%+/- 2.6%
ERA4.363.19 to 5.74+/- 1.27
FIP4.253.44 to 5.07+/- 0.82
WHIP1.3801.102 to 1.558+/- 0.228
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2899 career BF

xwOBA0.307
K%17.3%
BB%6.4%
Barrel8.4%
vs RHH

3511 career BF

xwOBA0.311
K%18.0%
BB%6.4%
Barrel8.8%