Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Wacha, Michael

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.8% K%
Range
15.3% to 23.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Balanced starter Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
54
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal7 metrics
58
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.49
ERA current pace3.77
ERA rolling p503.99
Observed weight69%
ERA
3.03 3.49 3.99 4.50 4.96
FIP
3.55 3.84 4.17 4.49 4.78
K%
17.4% 18.4% 19.5% 20.5% 21.5%
BB%
6.1% 6.7% 7.3% 7.9% 8.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.24
62
ERA3.77
56
BB%7.2%
72
K%20.0%
33 +16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.315
49 +29 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.1%
59 +21 vs proj
Fastball velo93.1
27
Hard-hit allowed38.4%
54
Whiff%19.5%
21
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+108
86
Fastball Stuff+104
60
Mithrandir Stuff+103
62
Curveball Stuff+102
40
Cutter Stuff+103
60
Sinker Stuff+98
24
Slider Stuff+105
72
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Wacha, Michael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.315 2026-07-06: 0.3122026-07-07: 0.3122026-07-08: 0.3122026-07-09: 0.3122026-07-10: 0.3122026-07-11: 0.3142026-07-12: 0.3142026-07-13: 0.3142026-07-14: 0.3142026-07-15: 0.3152026-07-16: 0.3152026-07-17: 0.315 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Wacha, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wacha, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 26.2%Changeup: 23.0%Sinker: 15.8%Cutter: 15.7%Curveball: 9.9%Slider: 9.3% FF26% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 26%CH 23%SI 16%FC 16%CU 10%SL 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wacha, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 26% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 93.1 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 23% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 80.6 mphCH81 mphSinker: 16% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.2 mphSI93 mphCutter: 16% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.2 mphFC89 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 76.2 mphCU76 mphSlider: 9% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 84.9 mphSL85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 28.6% 364 104 qualified
CH 22.3% 284 108 qualified
SI 15.3% 195 98 limited sample
FC 14.5% 185 103 limited sample
CB 10.0% 127 102 limited sample
SL 9.2% 117 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 27%, Changeup 25%, Cutter 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.59
K% Δ+0.021
Sample125.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings145.3----
Batters Faced604----
K%17.8%15.3% to 23.8%+/- 4.3%
BB%6.7%5.2% to 9.1%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%19.4%16.9% to 23.9%+/- 3.5%
HR/91.370.75 to 1.93+/- 0.59
xwOBA Against0.3450.290 to 0.356+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.6% to 11.8%+/- 2.6%
ERA4.363.19 to 5.74+/- 1.27
FIP4.253.44 to 5.07+/- 0.82
WHIP1.3801.102 to 1.558+/- 0.228
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2899 career BF

xwOBA0.307
K%17.3%
BB%6.4%
Barrel8.4%
vs RHH

3511 career BF

xwOBA0.311
K%18.0%
BB%6.4%
Barrel8.8%