Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Sugano, Tomoyuki

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.9% K%
Range
11.1% to 21.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Volatile contact Age 37 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
31
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
21
Arsenal6 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-19
ERA preseason4.81
ERA current pace4.80
ERA rolling p504.80
Observed weight62%
ERA
3.53 4.13 4.80 5.48 6.08
FIP
3.98 4.51 5.09 5.68 6.20
K%
12.6% 13.8% 15.0% 16.2% 17.4%
BB%
5.0% 5.6% 6.3% 7.0% 7.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
40
ERA4.80
30
BB%6.6%
81
K%13.6%
4
xwOBA allowed0.397
1
Barrel allowed13.9%
2 -25 vs proj
Fastball velo92.2
19
Hard-hit allowed46.5%
8
Whiff%17.1%
7
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-19
Fastball Stuff+104
66
Mithrandir Stuff+103
59
Sinker Stuff+103
57
Slider Stuff+105
73
Curveball Stuff+101
29
Cutter Stuff+101
40
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 22%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sugano, Tomoyuki · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.397 2026-07-08: 0.3972026-07-09: 0.3972026-07-10: 0.3972026-07-11: 0.3972026-07-12: 0.3972026-07-13: 0.3972026-07-14: 0.3972026-07-15: 0.3972026-07-16: 0.3972026-07-17: 0.3972026-07-18: 0.3972026-07-19: 0.397 2026-07-08 2026-07-19 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sugano, Tomoyuki · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sugano, Tomoyuki · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 22.0%Split-Finger: 20.2%Sinker: 18.4%Slider: 11.2%Cutter: 10.9%Sweeper: 10.7% FF22% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 22%FS 20%SI 18%SL 11%FC 11%ST 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sugano, Tomoyuki · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 22% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 92.3 mphFF92 mphSplit-Finger: 20% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 86.9 mphFS87 mphSinker: 18% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 92.2 mphSI92 mphSlider: 11% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.1 mphSL85 mphCutter: 11% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 88.9 mphFC89 mphSweeper: 11% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 83.7 mphST84 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 79.7 mphCU80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 28.1% 243 105 qualified
FB 25.8% 223 104 qualified
SI 24.5% 212 103 qualified
FC 13.4% 116 101 limited sample
CB 8.1% 70 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.346 vs 0.305 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Split-Finger 23%, Sweeper 20%, 4-Seam Fastball 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.38
K% Δ-0.033
Sample90.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings143.5----
Batters Faced621----
K%16.9%11.1% to 21.2%+/- 5.0%
BB%6.4%4.1% to 8.5%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%17.5%14.7% to 23.0%+/- 4.2%
HR/91.590.82 to 3.01+/- 1.09
xwOBA Against0.3750.331 to 0.421+/- 0.045
Barrel% Allowed9.2%5.9% to 14.3%+/- 4.2%
ERA5.183.40 to 6.91+/- 1.75
FIP4.693.33 to 6.38+/- 1.53
WHIP1.3741.178 to 1.716+/- 0.269
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

374 career BF

xwOBA0.346
K%12.4%
BB%5.5%
Barrel12.1%
vs RHH

324 career BF

xwOBA0.305
K%14.4%
BB%5.1%
Barrel9.6%