Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Sugano, Tomoyuki

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.9% K%
Range
11.1% to 21.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Volatile contact Age 37 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
33
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
24
Arsenal6 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.81
ERA current pace5.49
ERA rolling p505.32
Observed weight74%
ERA
3.94 4.59 5.32 6.04 6.69
FIP
4.04 4.61 5.24 5.87 6.44
K%
13.5% 14.4% 15.4% 16.3% 17.2%
BB%
4.7% 5.2% 5.7% 6.2% 6.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.36
45
ERA5.49
18
BB%5.7%
91
K%14.7%
5
xwOBA allowed0.377
4
Barrel allowed11.7%
4 -18 vs proj
Fastball velo92.5
21
Hard-hit allowed44.3%
13
Whiff%17.8%
12
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Cutter Stuff+102
55
Fastball Stuff+104
65
Mithrandir Stuff+103
58
Sinker Stuff+102
50
Slider Stuff+105
75
Curveball Stuff+102
42
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 21%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sugano, Tomoyuki · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.377 2026-09-12: 0.3862026-09-13: 0.3862026-09-14: 0.3862026-09-18: 0.3842026-09-19: 0.3842026-09-20: 0.3842026-09-21: 0.3812026-09-22: 0.3812026-09-23: 0.3812026-09-24: 0.3812026-09-25: 0.3812026-09-26: 0.377 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sugano, Tomoyuki · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sugano, Tomoyuki · 2026 arsenal snapshot Split-Finger: 21.0%4-Seam Fastball: 20.7%Sinker: 18.6%Cutter: 11.2%Sweeper: 10.7%Slider: 9.7% FS21% · 87 mphprimary pitch FS 21%FF 21%SI 19%FC 11%ST 11%SL 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sugano, Tomoyuki · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Split-Finger: 21% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 86.9 mphFS87 mph4-Seam Fastball: 21% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 92.6 mphFF93 mphSinker: 19% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 92.5 mphSI93 mphCutter: 11% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 89.0 mphFC89 mphSweeper: 11% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 83.7 mphST84 mphSlider: 10% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 85.4 mphSL85 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 79.8 mphCU80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 26.8% 395 105 qualified
FB 24.5% 362 104 qualified
SI 23.8% 352 102 qualified
FC 14.2% 209 102 qualified
CB 10.7% 158 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.346 vs 0.305 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Split-Finger 23%, Sweeper 20%, 4-Seam Fastball 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.31
K% Δ-0.022
Sample159.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings142.2----
Batters Faced616----
K%16.9%11.1% to 21.2%+/- 5.0%
BB%6.4%4.1% to 8.5%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%17.5%14.7% to 23.0%+/- 4.2%
HR/91.590.82 to 3.01+/- 1.09
xwOBA Against0.3750.331 to 0.421+/- 0.045
Barrel% Allowed9.2%5.9% to 14.3%+/- 4.2%
ERA5.183.40 to 6.91+/- 1.75
FIP4.693.32 to 6.38+/- 1.53
WHIP1.3731.178 to 1.716+/- 0.269
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

374 career BF

xwOBA0.346
K%12.4%
BB%5.5%
Barrel12.1%
vs RHH

324 career BF

xwOBA0.305
K%14.4%
BB%5.1%
Barrel9.6%