Estévez, Carlos
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.08 |
| ERA current pace | 162.00 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 17.34 |
| Observed weight | 8% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 55.6% | 15 | 79 | limited sample |
| CH | 22.2% | 6 | 92 | limited sample |
| SL | 22.2% | 6 | 84 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 40.7 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 168 | -- | -- |
| K% | 23.1% | 17.0% to 31.6% | +/- 7.3% |
| BB% | 8.4% | 5.4% to 12.3% | +/- 3.5% |
| Whiff% | 20.9% | 16.0% to 26.1% | +/- 5.1% |
| HR/9 | 1.14 | 0.26 to 1.82 | +/- 0.78 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.303 | 0.254 to 0.360 | +/- 0.053 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.6% | 4.8% to 13.7% | +/- 4.5% |
| ERA | 4.00 | 1.46 to 5.46 | +/- 2.00 |
| FIP | 3.74 | 2.55 to 6.59 | +/- 2.02 |
| WHIP | 1.229 | 0.959 to 1.557 | +/- 0.299 |
1040 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.278 |
| K% | 21.2% |
| BB% | 8.8% |
| Barrel | 9.6% |
1156 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.273 |
| K% | 23.0% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 8.9% |