Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Lugo, Seth

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.3% K%
Range
14.6% to 25.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Volatile contact Age 37 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-02
ERA preseason4.04
ERA current pace3.74
ERA rolling p503.87
Observed weight57%
ERA
2.91 3.36 3.87 4.37 4.83
FIP
3.16 3.53 3.95 4.36 4.73
K%
17.1% 18.4% 19.8% 21.3% 22.6%
BB%
6.5% 7.2% 8.0% 8.7% 9.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-02
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.1%
60
Barrel allowed10.1%
24 -17 vs proj
Fastball velo91.5
12
Hard-hit allowed43.0%
28
K%20.0%
32
Whiff%15.8%
5
xwOBA allowed0.348
21
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-02
Mithrandir Stuff+105
73
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 20%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lugo, Seth · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-19: 0.3462026-05-21: 0.3482026-05-23: 0.3482026-05-24: 0.3472026-05-25: 0.3552026-05-26: 0.3552026-05-28: 0.3562026-05-29: 0.3552026-05-30: 0.3552026-05-31: 0.3552026-06-01: 0.3482026-06-02: 0.348 2026-05-19 2026-06-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lugo, Seth · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 54%54%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lugo, Seth · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 20.3%4-Seam Fastball: 17.2%Cutter: 15.2%Curveball: 14.7%Slider: 9.5%Sweeper: 9.5% MIX SI 21%FF 18%FC 16%CU 15%SL 10%ST 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lugo, Seth · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB -0.3, IVB 2.0SIFF: HB -0.3, IVB 1.4FFFC: HB -0.0, IVB 1.8FCCU: HB 0.8, IVB 5.1CUSL: HB -0.0, IVB 3.1SLST: HB 0.3, IVB 3.7STCH: HB -1.2, IVB 2.8CHSV: HB -0.4, IVB 4.3SV horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 22.2% 228 102 qualified
SI 20.2% 208 108 qualified
FB 16.8% 173 100 limited sample
CB 16.7% 172 104 limited sample
FC 15.5% 160 101 limited sample
CH 8.6% 88 107 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.331 vs 0.298 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 21%, Curveball 18%, Sinker 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.36
K% Δ+0.017
Sample73.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings144.9----
Batters Faced610----
K%18.3%14.6% to 25.0%+/- 5.2%
BB%7.6%5.6% to 9.8%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%18.3%15.4% to 23.3%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.570.85 to 2.14+/- 0.65
xwOBA Against0.3410.288 to 0.359+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.4%6.0% to 12.9%+/- 3.5%
ERA5.102.79 to 5.48+/- 1.34
FIP4.613.30 to 5.49+/- 1.10
WHIP1.4171.051 to 1.522+/- 0.236
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2163 career BF

xwOBA0.331
K%18.5%
BB%7.6%
Barrel10.0%
vs RHH

2124 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%19.6%
BB%6.4%
Barrel9.8%