Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / KC · 2026

Lugo, Seth

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.3% K%
Range
14.6% to 25.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team KC Archetype Volatile contact Age 37 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
31
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
26
Arsenal7 metrics
66
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.04
ERA current pace5.06
ERA rolling p504.82
Observed weight76%
ERA
3.74 4.25 4.82 5.38 5.89
FIP
3.59 4.00 4.46 4.93 5.34
K%
16.5% 17.3% 18.3% 19.2% 20.1%
BB%
6.4% 6.9% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.51
21
ERA5.06
26
BB%7.4%
72
K%17.9%
20
xwOBA allowed0.343
18
Barrel allowed8.0%
41
Fastball velo91.5
11
Hard-hit allowed43.5%
17
Whiff%16.6%
7
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Curveball Stuff+105
88
Cutter Stuff+100
38
Fastball Stuff+101
39
Mithrandir Stuff+104
70
Sinker Stuff+108
89
Slider Stuff+103
57
Changeup Stuff+105
77
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 20%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lugo, Seth · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.343 2026-09-12: 0.3432026-09-13: 0.3432026-09-14: 0.3432026-09-18: 0.3432026-09-19: 0.3432026-09-20: 0.3432026-09-21: 0.3432026-09-22: 0.3432026-09-23: 0.3432026-09-24: 0.3432026-09-25: 0.3432026-09-26: 0.343 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lugo, Seth · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lugo, Seth · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 19.7%4-Seam Fastball: 16.6%Cutter: 15.9%Curveball: 14.9%Sweeper: 11.3%Slider: 9.2% SI20% · 91 mphprimary pitch SI 20%FF 17%FC 16%CU 15%ST 11%SL 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lugo, Seth · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 20% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.4 mphSI91 mph4-Seam Fastball: 17% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 91.7 mphFF92 mphCutter: 16% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 89.8 mphFC90 mphCurveball: 15% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 77.3 mphCU77 mphSweeper: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 79.2 mphST79 mphSlider: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 84.3 mphSL84 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.1 mphCH85 mphSlow Curve: 2% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 69.2 mphCS69 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 22.2% 446 103 qualified
SI 19.1% 383 108 qualified
FB 17.5% 352 101 qualified
CB 16.4% 329 105 qualified
FC 15.7% 315 100 qualified
CH 9.1% 183 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.331 vs 0.298 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 21%, Curveball 18%, Sinker 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.11
K% Δ-0.004
Sample172.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings144.3----
Batters Faced607----
K%18.3%14.6% to 25.0%+/- 5.2%
BB%7.6%5.6% to 9.8%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%18.3%15.4% to 23.3%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.570.85 to 2.14+/- 0.65
xwOBA Against0.3410.288 to 0.359+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.4%6.0% to 12.9%+/- 3.5%
ERA4.952.79 to 5.48+/- 1.34
FIP4.613.30 to 5.49+/- 1.10
WHIP1.4171.051 to 1.522+/- 0.236
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2163 career BF

xwOBA0.331
K%18.5%
BB%7.6%
Barrel10.0%
vs RHH

2124 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%19.6%
BB%6.4%
Barrel9.8%