Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Freeland, Kyle

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
16.3% K%
Range
13.0% to 22.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
31
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
24
Arsenal7 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.91
ERA current pace6.38
ERA rolling p505.97
Observed weight72%
ERA
4.47 5.18 5.97 6.75 7.46
FIP
3.64 4.19 4.80 5.41 5.96
K%
15.4% 16.4% 17.4% 18.5% 19.4%
BB%
4.1% 4.6% 5.1% 5.6% 6.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.52
20
ERA6.38
7
BB%4.9%
96
K%17.7%
19
xwOBA allowed0.354
12
Barrel allowed11.2%
6 -19 vs proj
Fastball velo91.3
9
Hard-hit allowed43.5%
17
Whiff%20.1%
29 +21 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+105
73
Curveball Stuff+100
15
Cutter Stuff+106
89
Fastball Stuff+102
47
Mithrandir Stuff+101
42
Sinker Stuff+104
67
Slider Stuff+98
20
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 23%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Freeland, Kyle · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.354 2026-09-12: 0.3462026-09-13: 0.3462026-09-14: 0.3462026-09-18: 0.3502026-09-19: 0.3502026-09-20: 0.3502026-09-21: 0.3502026-09-22: 0.3502026-09-23: 0.3552026-09-24: 0.3552026-09-25: 0.3552026-09-26: 0.354 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Freeland, Kyle · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Freeland, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 23.4%Knuckle Curve: 21.8%Cutter: 21.2%Changeup: 13.6%Sweeper: 10.1%Sinker: 9.8% FF23% · 91 mphprimary pitch FF 23%KC 22%FC 21%CH 14%ST 10%SI 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Freeland, Kyle · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 23% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 91.3 mphFF91 mphKnuckle Curve: 22% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 82.4 mphKC82 mphCutter: 21% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 87.7 mphFC88 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.2 mphCH86 mphSweeper: 10% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 82.7 mphST83 mphSinker: 10% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 91.1 mphSI91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 24.0% 373 102 qualified
CB 22.7% 353 100 qualified
FC 19.8% 309 106 qualified
CH 14.1% 220 105 qualified
SL 10.7% 166 98 limited sample
SI 8.7% 136 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.298 vs 0.336 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 33%, Knuckle Curve 25%, Cutter 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.97
K% Δ+0.014
Sample134.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings142.2----
Batters Faced627----
K%16.3%13.0% to 22.8%+/- 4.9%
BB%6.1%3.7% to 7.8%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%17.1%15.2% to 23.1%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.740.76 to 2.16+/- 0.70
xwOBA Against0.3590.298 to 0.386+/- 0.044
Barrel% Allowed9.0%6.3% to 13.0%+/- 3.3%
ERA5.412.97 to 6.86+/- 1.94
FIP4.963.41 to 6.41+/- 1.50
WHIP1.4301.161 to 1.724+/- 0.282
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1245 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%18.1%
BB%5.3%
Barrel7.7%
vs RHH

4445 career BF

xwOBA0.336
K%14.9%
BB%5.1%
Barrel10.1%