Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Martinez, Nick

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.0% K%
Range
13.8% to 23.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Balanced starter Age 36 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
54
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal7 metrics
69
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.31
ERA current pace2.65
ERA rolling p503.21
Observed weight66%
ERA
2.20 2.68 3.21 3.73 4.21
FIP
3.84 4.12 4.44 4.76 5.04
K%
13.2% 14.2% 15.3% 16.4% 17.3%
BB%
4.2% 4.7% 5.3% 5.8% 6.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.28
56
ERA2.65
84
BB%4.6%
97
K%13.3%
3
xwOBA allowed0.333
30
Barrel allowed7.5%
54
Fastball velo92.6
22
Hard-hit allowed34.6%
79
Whiff%15.7%
3
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+100
37
Cutter Stuff+106
91
Mithrandir Stuff+105
72
Sinker Stuff+106
82
Curveball Stuff+103
69
Fastball Stuff+104
62
Slider Stuff+105
71
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Martinez, Nick · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.333 2026-07-06: 0.3332026-07-07: 0.3332026-07-08: 0.3332026-07-09: 0.3332026-07-10: 0.3332026-07-11: 0.3332026-07-12: 0.3332026-07-13: 0.3332026-07-14: 0.3332026-07-15: 0.3332026-07-16: 0.3332026-07-17: 0.333 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Martinez, Nick · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Martinez, Nick · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 29.6%Changeup: 27.7%Cutter: 20.4%4-Seam Fastball: 12.0%Curveball: 6.7%Slider: 3.4% SI30% · 92 mphprimary pitch SI 30%CH 28%FC 20%FF 12%CU 7%SL 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Martinez, Nick · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 30% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.5 mphSI92 mphChangeup: 28% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 78.4 mphCH78 mphCutter: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 89.2 mphFC89 mph4-Seam Fastball: 12% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 92.8 mphFF93 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 79.9 mphCU80 mphSlider: 3% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.8 mphSL86 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.2 mphPO93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 29.8% 303 106 qualified
CH 28.5% 290 100 qualified
FC 20.2% 206 106 qualified
FB 11.3% 115 104 limited sample
CB 7.1% 72 103 limited sample
SL 3.1% 32 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 21%, Cutter 21%, Changeup 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.80
K% Δ-0.037
Sample111.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings74.8----
Batters Faced314----
K%17.0%13.8% to 23.2%+/- 4.7%
BB%6.4%4.7% to 8.8%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%18.9%16.5% to 23.8%+/- 3.7%
HR/91.520.86 to 1.91+/- 0.52
xwOBA Against0.3280.279 to 0.344+/- 0.032
Barrel% Allowed8.1%5.5% to 10.2%+/- 2.3%
ERA4.453.22 to 5.91+/- 1.35
FIP4.593.44 to 5.06+/- 0.81
WHIP1.3331.086 to 1.525+/- 0.220
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1605 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%18.0%
BB%6.2%
Barrel7.3%
vs RHH

1927 career BF

xwOBA0.288
K%16.6%
BB%5.5%
Barrel6.6%