Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Martinez, Nick

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.0% K%
Range
13.8% to 23.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Balanced starter Age 36 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
65
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal7 metrics
69
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.31
ERA current pace2.94
ERA rolling p503.27
Observed weight76%
ERA
2.20 2.71 3.27 3.83 4.34
FIP
3.71 4.02 4.36 4.70 5.00
K%
14.0% 14.8% 15.6% 16.5% 17.3%
BB%
3.6% 4.0% 4.4% 4.8% 5.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.17
77
ERA2.94
84
BB%3.7%
100
K%14.5%
5
xwOBA allowed0.305
61 +29 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.9%
59 +19 vs proj
Fastball velo92.4
20
Hard-hit allowed33.3%
86
Whiff%15.6%
4 -16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+101
43
Cutter Stuff+105
84
Fastball Stuff+104
67
Mithrandir Stuff+105
77
Sinker Stuff+107
84
Curveball Stuff+104
78
Slider Stuff+102
53
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Martinez, Nick · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.305 2026-09-12: 0.3112026-09-13: 0.3112026-09-14: 0.3112026-09-18: 0.3092026-09-19: 0.3092026-09-20: 0.3092026-09-21: 0.3092026-09-22: 0.3092026-09-23: 0.3052026-09-24: 0.3052026-09-25: 0.3052026-09-26: 0.305 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Martinez, Nick · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 53%53%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Martinez, Nick · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 31.1%Changeup: 25.8%Cutter: 21.7%4-Seam Fastball: 13.0%Curveball: 4.3%Slider: 4.0% SI31% · 92 mphprimary pitch SI 31%CH 26%FC 22%FF 13%CU 4%SL 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Martinez, Nick · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 31% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.4 mphSI92 mphChangeup: 26% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 78.2 mphCH78 mphCutter: 22% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 89.1 mphFC89 mph4-Seam Fastball: 13% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 92.7 mphFF93 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 79.9 mphCU80 mphSlider: 4% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.1 mphSL85 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.2 mphPO93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 30.8% 520 107 qualified
CH 26.4% 446 101 qualified
FC 21.7% 366 105 qualified
FB 13.0% 220 104 qualified
CB 4.3% 73 104 limited sample
SL 3.8% 64 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 21%, Cutter 21%, Changeup 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.51
K% Δ-0.025
Sample182.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings75.9----
Batters Faced318----
K%17.0%13.8% to 23.2%+/- 4.7%
BB%6.4%4.7% to 8.8%+/- 2.0%
Whiff%18.9%16.5% to 23.8%+/- 3.7%
HR/91.520.86 to 1.91+/- 0.52
xwOBA Against0.3290.279 to 0.344+/- 0.032
Barrel% Allowed8.1%5.5% to 10.2%+/- 2.3%
ERA4.453.22 to 5.91+/- 1.35
FIP4.593.44 to 5.06+/- 0.81
WHIP1.3331.086 to 1.525+/- 0.220
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1605 career BF

xwOBA0.298
K%18.0%
BB%6.2%
Barrel7.3%
vs RHH

1927 career BF

xwOBA0.288
K%16.6%
BB%5.5%
Barrel6.6%