Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CWS · 2026

Fedde, Erick

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.3% K%
Range
12.9% to 22.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team CWS Archetype Volatile contact Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
38
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
35
Arsenal6 metrics
34
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.42
ERA current pace3.90
ERA rolling p504.04
Observed weight72%
ERA
2.92 3.45 4.04 4.64 5.17
FIP
4.21 4.54 4.91 5.27 5.60
K%
14.8% 15.7% 16.7% 17.6% 18.5%
BB%
7.0% 7.6% 8.2% 8.9% 9.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.40
38
ERA3.90
55
BB%8.5%
55
K%16.5%
13
xwOBA allowed0.334
27 +17 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.2%
38
Fastball velo94.1
44
Hard-hit allowed40.6%
34
Whiff%17.5%
10
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Cutter Stuff+101
44
Mithrandir Stuff+102
48
Sinker Stuff+96
13
Slider Stuff+106
83
Changeup Stuff+96
18
Fastball Stuff+85
1
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Fedde, Erick · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.334 2026-09-12: 0.3322026-09-13: 0.3322026-09-14: 0.3322026-09-18: 0.3342026-09-19: 0.3342026-09-20: 0.3342026-09-21: 0.3342026-09-22: 0.3342026-09-23: 0.3342026-09-24: 0.3342026-09-25: 0.3342026-09-26: 0.334 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Fedde, Erick · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Fedde, Erick · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 38.5%Sinker: 30.8%Cutter: 18.3%Changeup: 11.2%4-Seam Fastball: 1.2% ST39% · 82 mphprimary pitch ST 39%SI 31%FC 18%CH 11%FF 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Fedde, Erick · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 39% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 82.2 mphST82 mphSinker: 31% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 94.0 mphSI94 mphCutter: 18% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 91.3 mphFC91 mphChangeup: 11% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 88.8 mphCH89 mph4-Seam Fastball: 1% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 94.4 mphFF94 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 39.0% 657 106 qualified
SI 29.6% 499 96 qualified
FC 20.4% 343 101 qualified
CH 10.0% 169 96 limited sample
FB 1.0% 16 85 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.332 vs 0.292 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 33%, Cutter 28%, Sweeper 26%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.59
K% Δ+0.001
Sample142.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings75.7----
Batters Faced324----
K%16.3%12.9% to 22.0%+/- 4.5%
BB%8.4%6.2% to 11.1%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%16.8%14.6% to 22.3%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.610.77 to 1.94+/- 0.59
xwOBA Against0.3560.294 to 0.371+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed8.1%5.7% to 10.7%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.493.25 to 6.16+/- 1.45
FIP4.743.57 to 5.36+/- 0.89
WHIP1.3981.122 to 1.632+/- 0.255
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1734 career BF

xwOBA0.332
K%14.2%
BB%9.9%
Barrel7.6%
vs RHH

1734 career BF

xwOBA0.292
K%16.9%
BB%6.9%
Barrel7.2%