Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYY · 2026

Rodón, Carlos

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
24.4% K%
Range
20.5% to 31.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYY Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 34 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
56
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
62
Arsenal5 metrics
26
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.70
ERA current pace3.30
ERA rolling p503.52
Observed weight45%
ERA
2.48 2.97 3.52 4.07 4.56
FIP
2.78 3.23 3.73 4.23 4.68
K%
22.1% 23.7% 25.6% 27.4% 29.1%
BB%
8.2% 9.1% 10.1% 11.0% 11.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.27
58
ERA3.30
70
BB%13.3%
10 -46 vs proj
K%26.7%
77
xwOBA allowed0.297
67
Barrel allowed5.2%
84 +50 vs proj
Fastball velo94.1
45
Hard-hit allowed35.7%
71
Whiff%26.3%
74
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+100
34
Fastball Stuff+100
35
Mithrandir Stuff+98
22
Sinker Stuff+93
7
Slider Stuff+99
29
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rodón, Carlos · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.297 2026-07-05: 0.2972026-07-06: 0.2972026-07-07: 0.2972026-07-08: 0.2972026-07-09: 0.2972026-07-10: 0.2972026-07-11: 0.2972026-07-12: 0.2972026-07-13: 0.2972026-07-14: 0.2972026-07-15: 0.2972026-07-16: 0.297 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rodón, Carlos · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rodón, Carlos · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.4%Slider: 24.3%Changeup: 15.6%Sinker: 14.1%Curveball: 1.6% FF44% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 44%SL 24%CH 16%SI 14%CU 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rodón, Carlos · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 94.4 mphFF94 mphSlider: 24% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.4 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 85.5 mphCH86 mphSinker: 14% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.3 mphSI93 mphCurveball: 2% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 79.9 mphCU80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 42.6% 152 100 limited sample
SL 28.3% 101 99 limited sample
SI 15.4% 55 93 limited sample
CH 12.3% 44 100 limited sample
CB 1.4% 5 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 42%, Slider 28%, Changeup 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.57
K% Δ+0.022
Sample45.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings146.7----
Batters Faced614----
K%24.4%20.5% to 31.4%+/- 5.5%
BB%8.3%6.4% to 10.7%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%25.7%23.0% to 31.0%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.390.83 to 2.10+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.3060.253 to 0.339+/- 0.043
Barrel% Allowed8.8%6.6% to 12.2%+/- 2.8%
ERA3.872.38 to 5.31+/- 1.47
FIP4.032.80 to 5.48+/- 1.34
WHIP1.2081.009 to 1.475+/- 0.233
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1193 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%25.4%
BB%7.1%
Barrel7.6%
vs RHH

4468 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%23.0%
BB%8.5%
Barrel9.5%