Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Rea, Colin

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.8% K%
Range
14.1% to 24.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Volatile contact Age 36 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
25
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
26
Arsenal7 metrics
40
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.33
ERA current pace4.75
ERA rolling p504.60
Observed weight65%
ERA
3.43 3.98 4.60 5.22 5.78
FIP
4.04 4.37 4.75 5.12 5.46
K%
15.3% 16.4% 17.6% 18.8% 19.9%
BB%
6.8% 7.4% 8.1% 8.9% 9.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.47
23
ERA4.75
31
BB%8.9%
46 -31 vs proj
K%17.3%
15
xwOBA allowed0.363
9
Barrel allowed9.8%
22
Fastball velo93.5
35
Hard-hit allowed40.0%
43
Whiff%18.5%
14
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+98
23
Mithrandir Stuff+101
41
Slider Stuff+104
58
Changeup Stuff+106
75
Curveball Stuff+100
22
Cutter Stuff+101
47
Sinker Stuff+95
12
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rea, Colin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.363 2026-07-05: 0.3572026-07-06: 0.3572026-07-07: 0.3572026-07-08: 0.3572026-07-09: 0.3572026-07-10: 0.3632026-07-11: 0.3632026-07-12: 0.3632026-07-13: 0.3632026-07-14: 0.3632026-07-15: 0.3632026-07-16: 0.363 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rea, Colin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rea, Colin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.2%Changeup: 17.3%Slider: 11.1%Sinker: 9.3%Sweeper: 9.2%Cutter: 6.5% FF41% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 41%CH 17%SL 11%SI 9%ST 9%FC 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rea, Colin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.8 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 17% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 87.7 mphCH88 mphSlider: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.1 mphSL86 mphSinker: 9% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.5 mphSI92 mphSweeper: 9% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 83.0 mphST83 mphCutter: 6% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.1 mphFC87 mphCurveball: 5% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 79.8 mphCU80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 47.3% 467 98 qualified
SL 24.6% 243 104 qualified
SI 10.6% 105 95 limited sample
FC 7.4% 73 101 limited sample
CB 6.2% 61 100 limited sample
CH 3.9% 38 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.334 vs 0.299 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 41%, Split-Finger 12%, Sinker 11%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.21
K% Δ+0.005
Sample99.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings76.0----
Batters Faced325----
K%16.8%14.1% to 24.1%+/- 5.0%
BB%6.9%4.9% to 9.5%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%18.0%15.8% to 22.9%+/- 3.6%
HR/91.580.93 to 2.42+/- 0.75
xwOBA Against0.3470.289 to 0.368+/- 0.039
Barrel% Allowed8.7%6.0% to 12.8%+/- 3.4%
ERA4.543.04 to 6.22+/- 1.59
FIP4.893.70 to 5.63+/- 0.96
WHIP1.3321.119 to 1.601+/- 0.241
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1347 career BF

xwOBA0.334
K%16.5%
BB%7.3%
Barrel10.9%
vs RHH

1318 career BF

xwOBA0.299
K%18.3%
BB%5.4%
Barrel8.6%