Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Springs, Jeffrey

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.1% K%
Range
14.8% to 25.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Balanced starter Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
32
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
35
Arsenal5 metrics
35
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.26
ERA current pace6.08
ERA rolling p505.46
Observed weight66%
ERA
4.21 4.80 5.46 6.12 6.71
FIP
4.61 4.98 5.38 5.78 6.15
K%
17.6% 18.8% 20.1% 21.3% 22.5%
BB%
6.8% 7.5% 8.3% 9.0% 9.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.40
34
ERA6.08
10
BB%8.7%
49 -21 vs proj
K%20.0%
33
xwOBA allowed0.330
33
Barrel allowed9.3%
26
Fastball velo91.4
10
Hard-hit allowed33.9%
83
Whiff%21.5%
38
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+103
57
Fastball Stuff+98
22
Mithrandir Stuff+100
32
Slider Stuff+104
66
Cutter Stuff+87
0
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Springs, Jeffrey · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.330 2026-07-06: 0.3312026-07-07: 0.3312026-07-08: 0.3312026-07-09: 0.3312026-07-10: 0.3302026-07-11: 0.3302026-07-12: 0.3302026-07-13: 0.3302026-07-14: 0.3302026-07-15: 0.3302026-07-16: 0.3302026-07-17: 0.330 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Springs, Jeffrey · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Springs, Jeffrey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.0%Slider: 25.0%Changeup: 22.5%Sweeper: 6.4%Cutter: 2.2% FF44% · 91 mphprimary pitch FF 44%SL 25%CH 22%ST 6%FC 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Springs, Jeffrey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 91.4 mphFF91 mphSlider: 25% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 83.9 mphSL84 mphChangeup: 22% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 79.5 mphCH79 mphSweeper: 6% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 76.8 mphST77 mphCutter: 2% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 88.5 mphFC89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 43.9% 504 98 qualified
SL 31.4% 360 104 qualified
CH 22.3% 256 103 qualified
FC 2.4% 28 87 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.275 vs 0.299 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 43%, Changeup 25%, Slider 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.32
K% Δ-0.011
Sample103.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings70.6----
Batters Faced299----
K%21.1%14.8% to 25.6%+/- 5.4%
BB%7.4%5.4% to 10.6%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%23.0%19.3% to 27.9%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.440.99 to 2.27+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3330.271 to 0.353+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.3%6.0% to 11.6%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.762.75 to 6.12+/- 1.69
FIP4.523.46 to 5.53+/- 1.04
WHIP1.3711.053 to 1.555+/- 0.251
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

540 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%19.5%
BB%6.6%
Barrel6.6%
vs RHH

1621 career BF

xwOBA0.299
K%18.6%
BB%7.1%
Barrel8.9%