Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Springs, Jeffrey

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.1% K%
Range
14.8% to 25.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Balanced starter Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
26
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
31
Arsenal5 metrics
36
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.26
ERA current pace6.18
ERA rolling p505.67
Observed weight73%
ERA
4.35 4.98 5.67 6.36 6.99
FIP
4.69 5.08 5.50 5.93 6.31
K%
16.7% 17.6% 18.7% 19.8% 20.7%
BB%
7.4% 8.0% 8.6% 9.3% 9.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.46
28
ERA6.18
9
BB%9.1%
49 -23 vs proj
K%18.1%
22 -21 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.339
24
Barrel allowed9.1%
24
Fastball velo91.3
10
Hard-hit allowed34.3%
81
Whiff%20.7%
33 -21 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+103
63
Fastball Stuff+99
25
Mithrandir Stuff+100
29
Slider Stuff+103
59
Cutter Stuff+94
3
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Springs, Jeffrey · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.339 2026-09-12: 0.3372026-09-13: 0.3372026-09-14: 0.3372026-09-18: 0.3352026-09-19: 0.3352026-09-20: 0.3352026-09-21: 0.3352026-09-22: 0.3352026-09-23: 0.3352026-09-24: 0.3392026-09-25: 0.3392026-09-26: 0.339 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Springs, Jeffrey · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Springs, Jeffrey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 43.5%Changeup: 24.7%Slider: 21.7%Sweeper: 6.0%Cutter: 4.1% FF44% · 91 mphprimary pitch FF 44%CH 25%SL 22%ST 6%FC 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Springs, Jeffrey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 91.3 mphFF91 mphChangeup: 25% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 79.5 mphCH80 mphSlider: 22% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 84.2 mphSL84 mphSweeper: 6% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 77.4 mphST77 mphCutter: 4% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 87.7 mphFC88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 43.4% 784 99 qualified
SL 26.6% 481 103 qualified
CH 24.9% 451 103 qualified
FC 5.1% 92 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.275 vs 0.299 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 43%, Changeup 25%, Slider 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.42
K% Δ-0.030
Sample147.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings71.6----
Batters Faced304----
K%21.1%14.8% to 25.6%+/- 5.4%
BB%7.4%5.4% to 10.6%+/- 2.6%
Whiff%23.0%19.3% to 27.9%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.440.99 to 2.27+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3330.271 to 0.353+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.3%6.0% to 11.6%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.762.75 to 6.12+/- 1.69
FIP4.523.46 to 5.53+/- 1.04
WHIP1.3711.053 to 1.555+/- 0.251
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

540 career BF

xwOBA0.275
K%19.5%
BB%6.6%
Barrel6.6%
vs RHH

1621 career BF

xwOBA0.299
K%18.6%
BB%7.1%
Barrel8.9%