Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Snell, Blake

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
28.5% K%
Range
23.2% to 35.9%
Live Δ
--
Team LAD Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 34 Status IL-60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.32
ERA current pace12.00
ERA rolling p503.92
Observed weight7%
ERA
2.62 3.24 3.92 4.61 5.23
FIP
2.36 2.77 3.23 3.70 4.11
K%
22.6% 25.4% 28.6% 31.7% 34.5%
BB%
7.2% 8.5% 10.0% 11.4% 12.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+100
35
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2025Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Snell, Blake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 35%35%Whiff: 40%40%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 18%18% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2025
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Snell, Blake · 2025 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.0%Changeup: 26.0%Curveball: 21.5%Slider: 13.5% MIX FF 39%CH 26%CU 21%SL 14% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Snell, Blake · 2025 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.0FFCH: HB -1.0, IVB 2.3CHCU: HB 0.5, IVB 4.0CUSL: HB -0.1, IVB 2.2SL horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 41.6% 32 96 limited sample
CB 20.8% 16 105 limited sample
SL 19.5% 15 100 limited sample
CH 18.2% 14 110 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 39%, Changeup 26%, Curveball 21%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings71.7----
Batters Faced299----
K%28.5%23.2% to 35.9%+/- 6.3%
BB%10.1%7.1% to 12.9%+/- 2.9%
Whiff%29.3%27.9% to 36.7%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.130.32 to 1.68+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.2880.230 to 0.327+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed7.4%4.1% to 9.6%+/- 2.7%
ERA3.401.75 to 4.55+/- 1.40
FIP3.361.90 to 3.78+/- 0.94
WHIP1.1910.924 to 1.506+/- 0.291
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1002 career BF

xwOBA0.251
K%28.2%
BB%10.8%
Barrel6.0%
vs RHH

4249 career BF

xwOBA0.262
K%27.6%
BB%10.0%
Barrel5.8%