Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026

Houser, Adrian

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.8% K%
Range
14.9% to 23.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team SF Archetype Balanced starter Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
32
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
32
Arsenal6 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.27
ERA current pace4.95
ERA rolling p504.69
Observed weight61%
ERA
3.60 4.11 4.69 5.26 5.78
FIP
3.86 4.24 4.66 5.08 5.45
K%
14.4% 15.4% 16.6% 17.7% 18.8%
BB%
6.2% 6.9% 7.6% 8.3% 9.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
40
ERA4.95
26
BB%7.7%
64
K%15.9%
11
xwOBA allowed0.345
21
Barrel allowed8.8%
34
Fastball velo94.9
57
Hard-hit allowed41.9%
30
Whiff%16.7%
7
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Mithrandir Stuff+104
64
Sinker Stuff+103
57
Changeup Stuff+99
30
Curveball Stuff+100
23
Fastball Stuff+103
57
Slider Stuff+109
92
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Houser, Adrian · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.345 2026-07-05: 0.3552026-07-06: 0.3552026-07-07: 0.3532026-07-08: 0.3532026-07-09: 0.3452026-07-10: 0.3452026-07-11: 0.3452026-07-12: 0.3452026-07-13: 0.3452026-07-14: 0.3452026-07-15: 0.3452026-07-16: 0.345 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Houser, Adrian · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Houser, Adrian · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 45.7%4-Seam Fastball: 17.3%Changeup: 16.8%Slider: 11.7%Curveball: 8.4% SI46% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 46%FF 17%CH 17%SL 12%CU 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Houser, Adrian · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 46% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 94.7 mphSI95 mph4-Seam Fastball: 17% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.5 mphFF95 mphChangeup: 17% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.2 mphCH85 mphSlider: 12% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 88.2 mphSL88 mphCurveball: 8% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 82.2 mphCU82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 45.4% 465 103 qualified
CH 18.1% 185 99 limited sample
FB 16.6% 170 103 limited sample
SL 12.1% 124 109 limited sample
CB 7.8% 80 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.317 vs 0.284 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 46%, Slider 16%, Changeup 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.47
K% Δ-0.009
Sample85.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings140.0----
Batters Faced606----
K%16.8%14.9% to 23.3%+/- 4.2%
BB%7.5%5.7% to 10.2%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%16.4%14.8% to 21.7%+/- 3.5%
HR/91.340.61 to 1.81+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3370.283 to 0.352+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.0%5.3% to 10.2%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.483.19 to 6.21+/- 1.51
FIP4.393.09 to 5.29+/- 1.10
WHIP1.4261.191 to 1.683+/- 0.246
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1563 career BF

xwOBA0.317
K%15.2%
BB%9.0%
Barrel7.2%
vs RHH

1759 career BF

xwOBA0.284
K%16.7%
BB%5.9%
Barrel6.2%