Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Bassitt, Chris

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.5% K%
Range
16.9% to 27.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Balanced starter Age 37 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-16
23
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
35
Arsenal7 metrics
37
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-16
ERA preseason4.20
ERA current pace5.27
ERA rolling p504.78
Observed weight55%
ERA
3.87 4.30 4.78 5.26 5.70
FIP
3.47 3.82 4.21 4.60 4.95
K%
14.7% 16.0% 17.4% 18.9% 20.1%
BB%
6.5% 7.3% 8.1% 8.9% 9.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.57
12
ERA5.27
19
BB%8.2%
57
K%14.4%
4 -32 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.344
22
Barrel allowed3.7%
92 +57 vs proj
Fastball velo91.7
13
Hard-hit allowed34.0%
81
Whiff%17.8%
12
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-16
Curveball Stuff+101
40
Mithrandir Stuff+102
47
Sinker Stuff+106
83
Changeup Stuff+91
5
Cutter Stuff+97
13
Fastball Stuff+88
2
Slider Stuff+104
70
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bassitt, Chris · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.344 2026-06-05: 0.3442026-06-06: 0.3442026-06-07: 0.3442026-06-08: 0.3442026-06-09: 0.3442026-06-10: 0.3442026-06-11: 0.3442026-06-12: 0.3442026-06-13: 0.3442026-06-14: 0.3442026-06-15: 0.3442026-06-16: 0.344 2026-06-05 2026-06-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bassitt, Chris · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bassitt, Chris · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 36.9%Curveball: 22.3%Cutter: 22.3%Sweeper: 6.0%4-Seam Fastball: 5.3%Changeup: 5.2% SI37% · 92 mphprimary pitch SI 37%CU 22%FC 22%ST 6%FF 5%CH 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bassitt, Chris · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Sinker: 37% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 91.8 mphSI92 mphCurveball: 22% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 67″ drop, 70.9 mphCU71 mphCutter: 22% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.5 mphFC89 mphSweeper: 6% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 72.7 mphST73 mph4-Seam Fastball: 5% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 91.4 mphFF91 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 84.8 mphCH85 mphSlider: 2% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 79.4 mphSL79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 36.3% 306 106 qualified
CB 24.8% 209 101 qualified
FC 22.2% 187 97 limited sample
SL 7.4% 62 104 limited sample
CH 5.0% 42 91 limited sample
FB 4.3% 36 88 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.331 vs 0.284 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 42%, Cutter 17%, Curveball 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.14
K% Δ-0.060
Sample61.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings79.0----
Batters Faced343----
K%20.5%16.9% to 27.2%+/- 5.1%
BB%8.2%6.0% to 10.7%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%19.7%18.0% to 25.1%+/- 3.6%
HR/91.350.84 to 1.92+/- 0.54
xwOBA Against0.3290.284 to 0.350+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed8.8%6.0% to 11.4%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.133.11 to 5.69+/- 1.29
FIP4.403.07 to 5.16+/- 1.04
WHIP1.3731.113 to 1.602+/- 0.244
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2777 career BF

xwOBA0.331
K%19.5%
BB%9.5%
Barrel9.5%
vs RHH

2801 career BF

xwOBA0.284
K%21.8%
BB%6.5%
Barrel7.0%