Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Bassitt, Chris

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.5% K%
Range
16.9% to 27.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Balanced starter Age 37 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
30
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
37
Arsenal7 metrics
37
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.20
ERA current pace4.64
ERA rolling p504.49
Observed weight67%
ERA
3.53 3.99 4.49 5.00 5.45
FIP
3.31 3.68 4.09 4.50 4.87
K%
15.5% 16.6% 17.7% 18.9% 19.9%
BB%
6.8% 7.4% 8.1% 8.8% 9.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.53
19
ERA4.64
35
BB%8.2%
60
K%16.1%
11 -26 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.338
24
Barrel allowed4.7%
89 +59 vs proj
Fastball velo92.2
18
Hard-hit allowed37.2%
60
Whiff%18.1%
13
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Curveball Stuff+102
41
Cutter Stuff+97
13
Mithrandir Stuff+102
44
Sinker Stuff+105
71
Changeup Stuff+101
39
Fastball Stuff+93
8
Slider Stuff+101
42
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 37%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Bassitt, Chris · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.338 2026-09-12: 0.3442026-09-13: 0.3442026-09-14: 0.3442026-09-18: 0.3392026-09-19: 0.3392026-09-20: 0.3392026-09-21: 0.3392026-09-22: 0.3392026-09-23: 0.3392026-09-24: 0.3382026-09-25: 0.3382026-09-26: 0.338 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Bassitt, Chris · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bassitt, Chris · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 36.7%Curveball: 21.0%Cutter: 19.5%4-Seam Fastball: 8.8%Sweeper: 6.1%Changeup: 5.2% SI37% · 92 mphprimary pitch SI 37%CU 21%FC 20%FF 9%ST 6%CH 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Bassitt, Chris · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Sinker: 37% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 92.2 mphSI92 mphCurveball: 21% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 67″ drop, 71.2 mphCU71 mphCutter: 20% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.8 mphFC90 mph4-Seam Fastball: 9% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.3 mphFF92 mphSweeper: 6% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 73.3 mphST73 mphChangeup: 5% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.2 mphCH85 mphSlider: 3% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 81.1 mphSL81 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 36.1% 506 105 qualified
CB 22.7% 318 102 qualified
FC 19.3% 270 97 qualified
SL 8.4% 118 101 limited sample
FB 8.2% 115 93 limited sample
CH 5.2% 73 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.331 vs 0.284 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 42%, Cutter 17%, Curveball 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.51
K% Δ-0.043
Sample106.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings79.2----
Batters Faced344----
K%20.5%16.9% to 27.2%+/- 5.1%
BB%8.2%6.0% to 10.7%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%19.7%18.0% to 25.1%+/- 3.6%
HR/91.350.84 to 1.92+/- 0.54
xwOBA Against0.3290.284 to 0.350+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed8.8%6.0% to 11.4%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.133.11 to 5.69+/- 1.29
FIP4.403.07 to 5.15+/- 1.04
WHIP1.3741.113 to 1.602+/- 0.244
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2777 career BF

xwOBA0.331
K%19.5%
BB%9.5%
Barrel9.5%
vs RHH

2801 career BF

xwOBA0.284
K%21.8%
BB%6.5%
Barrel7.0%