Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026

Barlow, Scott

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
24.1% K%
Range
19.9% to 32.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team ATH Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-16
22
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
36
Arsenal5 metrics
12
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-16
ERA preseason3.94
ERA current pace4.25
ERA rolling p504.06
Observed weight38%
ERA
2.55 3.26 4.06 4.85 5.57
FIP
4.15 4.47 4.82 5.18 5.50
K%
18.9% 20.8% 23.0% 25.1% 27.0%
BB%
10.2% 11.4% 12.8% 14.2% 15.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.45
27
ERA4.25
39
BB%15.5%
3 -15 vs proj
K%18.2%
22 -39 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.347
20 -39 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.7%
37 -18 vs proj
Fastball velo89.0
2
Hard-hit allowed34.8%
77
Whiff%31.8%
94 +19 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-16
Curveball Stuff+99
17
Fastball Stuff+99
26
Mithrandir Stuff+93
10
Sinker Stuff+87
1
Slider Stuff+94
8
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Barlow, Scott · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.347 2026-06-05: 0.3122026-06-06: 0.3122026-06-07: 0.3122026-06-08: 0.3122026-06-09: 0.3122026-06-10: 0.3272026-06-11: 0.3272026-06-12: 0.3272026-06-13: 0.3302026-06-14: 0.3302026-06-15: 0.3282026-06-16: 0.347 2026-06-05 2026-06-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Barlow, Scott · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 39%39%Whiff: 32%32%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Barlow, Scott · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 34.8%Curveball: 32.8%Sinker: 15.3%4-Seam Fastball: 12.8%Slider: 4.3% ST35% · 79 mphprimary pitch ST 35%CU 33%SI 15%FF 13%SL 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Barlow, Scott · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sweeper: 35% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 79.1 mphST79 mphCurveball: 33% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 76.2 mphCU76 mphSinker: 15% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 89.1 mphSI89 mph4-Seam Fastball: 13% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 89.0 mphFF89 mphSlider: 4% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 82.3 mphSL82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 38.2% 150 94 limited sample
CB 33.1% 130 99 limited sample
SI 16.0% 63 87 limited sample
FB 12.7% 50 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 28%, 4-Seam Fastball 22%, Slider 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.32
K% Δ-0.058
Sample31.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.8----
Batters Faced298----
K%24.1%19.9% to 32.0%+/- 6.1%
BB%11.9%8.8% to 16.0%+/- 3.6%
Whiff%26.4%24.0% to 33.9%+/- 5.0%
HR/91.170.43 to 1.75+/- 0.66
xwOBA Against0.3050.254 to 0.353+/- 0.049
Barrel% Allowed7.3%4.3% to 9.8%+/- 2.8%
ERA3.932.01 to 6.16+/- 2.08
FIP4.192.72 to 4.57+/- 0.93
WHIP1.2881.024 to 1.718+/- 0.347
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

882 career BF

xwOBA0.314
K%23.8%
BB%14.0%
Barrel7.0%
vs RHH

1136 career BF

xwOBA0.301
K%23.5%
BB%12.1%
Barrel6.0%