Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Junis, Jakob

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.1% K%
Range
14.3% to 27.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Balanced reliever Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
56
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
53
Arsenal5 metrics
64
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.73
ERA current pace3.57
ERA rolling p503.65
Observed weight49%
ERA
2.43 3.01 3.65 4.30 4.87
FIP
2.91 3.34 3.83 4.32 4.75
K%
15.3% 17.1% 19.1% 21.0% 22.8%
BB%
4.4% 5.3% 6.3% 7.3% 8.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.22
69
ERA3.57
68
BB%6.8%
81
K%17.4%
17
xwOBA allowed0.319
42
Barrel allowed3.5%
96 +59 vs proj
Fastball velo92.1
17
Hard-hit allowed35.3%
75
Whiff%17.6%
11 -23 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Mithrandir Stuff+104
72
Slider Stuff+107
87
Changeup Stuff+108
92
Fastball Stuff+96
16
Sinker Stuff+103
55
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Junis, Jakob · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.319 2026-09-13: 0.3192026-09-14: 0.3192026-09-18: 0.3182026-09-19: 0.3182026-09-20: 0.3182026-09-21: 0.3182026-09-22: 0.3182026-09-23: 0.3182026-09-24: 0.3182026-09-25: 0.3182026-09-26: 0.3182026-09-27: 0.319 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Junis, Jakob · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Junis, Jakob · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 43.0%Changeup: 19.9%4-Seam Fastball: 19.2%Sinker: 18.0% ST43% · 82 mphprimary pitch ST 43%CH 20%FF 19%SI 18% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Junis, Jakob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 43% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 82.1 mphST82 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 86.8 mphCH87 mph4-Seam Fastball: 19% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 92.3 mphFF92 mphSinker: 18% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 91.9 mphSI92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 42.9% 248 107 qualified
CH 19.9% 115 108 limited sample
SI 18.7% 108 103 limited sample
FB 18.5% 107 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 44%, Sinker 28%, Changeup 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.50
K% Δ-0.017
Sample55.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings41.2----
Batters Faced171----
K%19.1%14.3% to 27.6%+/- 6.7%
BB%6.1%3.5% to 9.7%+/- 3.1%
Whiff%20.7%18.1% to 26.9%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.230.62 to 2.05+/- 0.71
xwOBA Against0.3270.262 to 0.355+/- 0.046
Barrel% Allowed8.2%4.6% to 12.1%+/- 3.7%
ERA4.072.25 to 5.71+/- 1.73
FIP4.083.08 to 5.69+/- 1.31
WHIP1.2871.048 to 1.608+/- 0.280
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1789 career BF

xwOBA0.309
K%17.9%
BB%5.8%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

1933 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%20.9%
BB%4.3%
Barrel8.1%