Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Junis, Jakob

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
19.1% K%
Range
14.3% to 27.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Balanced reliever Age 34 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
74
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
64
Arsenal5 metrics
65
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.73
ERA current pace2.80
ERA rolling p503.38
Observed weight38%
ERA
2.12 2.71 3.38 4.04 4.63
FIP
2.67 3.12 3.62 4.12 4.57
K%
16.3% 18.4% 20.8% 23.1% 25.2%
BB%
3.3% 4.3% 5.4% 6.5% 7.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.02
89
ERA2.80
81
BB%4.7%
97
K%20.9%
39
xwOBA allowed0.303
62 +25 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.7%
94 +52 vs proj
Fastball velo92.1
17
Hard-hit allowed34.6%
79
Whiff%18.7%
16 -16 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+109
92
Fastball Stuff+99
26
Mithrandir Stuff+106
80
Sinker Stuff+101
39
Slider Stuff+108
89
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Junis, Jakob · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.303 2026-07-06: 0.3032026-07-07: 0.3032026-07-08: 0.3032026-07-09: 0.3032026-07-10: 0.3032026-07-11: 0.3032026-07-12: 0.3032026-07-13: 0.3032026-07-14: 0.3032026-07-15: 0.3032026-07-16: 0.3032026-07-17: 0.303 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Junis, Jakob · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 53%53%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Junis, Jakob · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 42.6%Changeup: 19.7%Sinker: 19.3%4-Seam Fastball: 18.4% ST43% · 82 mphprimary pitch ST 43%CH 20%SI 19%FF 18% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Junis, Jakob · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 43% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 82.1 mphST82 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.6 mphCH87 mphSinker: 19% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 91.9 mphSI92 mph4-Seam Fastball: 18% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 92.2 mphFF92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 42.4% 156 108 limited sample
CH 20.9% 77 109 limited sample
SI 20.7% 76 101 limited sample
FB 16.0% 59 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 44%, Sinker 28%, Changeup 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.27
K% Δ+0.018
Sample36.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings41.7----
Batters Faced173----
K%19.1%14.3% to 27.6%+/- 6.7%
BB%6.1%3.5% to 9.7%+/- 3.1%
Whiff%20.7%18.1% to 26.9%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.230.62 to 2.05+/- 0.71
xwOBA Against0.3270.263 to 0.355+/- 0.046
Barrel% Allowed8.2%4.6% to 12.1%+/- 3.7%
ERA4.072.25 to 5.71+/- 1.73
FIP4.083.08 to 5.69+/- 1.31
WHIP1.2861.054 to 1.608+/- 0.277
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1789 career BF

xwOBA0.309
K%17.9%
BB%5.8%
Barrel8.0%
vs RHH

1933 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%20.9%
BB%4.3%
Barrel8.1%