Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 44%, Sinker 28%, Changeup 20%.
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026
Junis, Jakob
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team TEX
Archetype Balanced reliever
Age 34
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.73 |
| ERA current pace | 1.50 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.08 |
| Observed weight | 29% |
ERA
1.75
2.38
3.08
3.77
4.40
FIP
2.63
3.10
3.63
4.15
4.63
K%
15.2%
17.6%
20.2%
22.8%
25.1%
BB%
3.5%
4.6%
5.9%
7.1%
8.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.0%
86
Barrel allowed4.1%
89
+45 vs proj
Fastball velo91.7
15
Hard-hit allowed30.1%
93
K%19.0%
25
Whiff%17.7%
11
-19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.295
66
+25 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+107
86
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
42%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 41.8% | 132 | 109 | limited sample |
| CH | 22.8% | 72 | 109 | limited sample |
| SI | 20.3% | 64 | 104 | limited sample |
| FB | 15.2% | 48 | 98 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -2.57 |
| K% Δ | -0.001 |
| Sample | 26.0 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 42.2 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 175 | -- | -- |
| K% | 19.1% | 14.3% to 27.6% | +/- 6.7% |
| BB% | 6.1% | 3.5% to 9.7% | +/- 3.1% |
| Whiff% | 20.7% | 18.1% to 26.9% | +/- 4.4% |
| HR/9 | 1.23 | 0.62 to 2.05 | +/- 0.71 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.327 | 0.263 to 0.355 | +/- 0.046 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.2% | 4.6% to 12.1% | +/- 3.7% |
| ERA | 4.07 | 2.25 to 5.71 | +/- 1.73 |
| FIP | 4.08 | 3.08 to 5.69 | +/- 1.31 |
| WHIP | 1.286 | 1.054 to 1.608 | +/- 0.277 |
vs LHH
1789 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.309 |
| K% | 17.9% |
| BB% | 5.8% |
| Barrel | 8.0% |
vs RHH
1933 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.294 |
| K% | 20.9% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 8.1% |