Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAD · 2026

Treinen, Blake

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
26.1% K%
Range
20.7% to 36.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAD Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 38 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
39
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
39
Arsenal5 metrics
71
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.37
ERA current pace3.64
ERA rolling p503.47
Observed weight38%
ERA
1.94 2.67 3.47 4.27 4.99
FIP
2.93 3.21 3.51 3.82 4.09
K%
20.3% 22.8% 25.5% 28.3% 30.8%
BB%
7.6% 8.9% 10.3% 11.8% 13.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.53
18
ERA3.64
65
BB%11.1%
25
K%25.0%
70
xwOBA allowed0.343
19 -55 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.2%
6 -59 vs proj
Fastball velo95.0
59
Hard-hit allowed42.7%
20
Whiff%25.6%
72
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Cutter Stuff+110
98
Fastball Stuff+103
58
Mithrandir Stuff+106
83
Sinker Stuff+109
93
Slider Stuff+98
21
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Treinen, Blake · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.343 2026-09-13: 0.3402026-09-14: 0.3402026-09-18: 0.3432026-09-19: 0.3432026-09-20: 0.3422026-09-21: 0.3422026-09-22: 0.3422026-09-23: 0.3422026-09-24: 0.3432026-09-25: 0.3432026-09-26: 0.3432026-09-27: 0.343 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Treinen, Blake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Treinen, Blake · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 40.1%Sinker: 36.0%4-Seam Fastball: 12.1%Cutter: 11.4%Changeup: 0.4% ST40% · 84 mphprimary pitch ST 40%SI 36%FF 12%FC 11%CH 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Treinen, Blake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 40% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 84.0 mphST84 mphSinker: 36% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 95.1 mphSI95 mph4-Seam Fastball: 12% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 94.8 mphFF95 mphCutter: 11% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.3 mphFC91 mphChangeup: 0% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 90.8 mphCH91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 43.1% 169 98 limited sample
SI 36.7% 144 109 limited sample
FC 10.5% 41 110 limited sample
FB 9.7% 38 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 46%, Sinker 30%, 4-Seam Fastball 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.05
K% Δ-0.011
Sample31.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings35.0----
Batters Faced157----
K%26.1%20.7% to 36.5%+/- 7.9%
BB%10.0%6.0% to 13.8%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%24.7%19.7% to 32.3%+/- 6.3%
HR/91.130.32 to 1.85+/- 0.77
xwOBA Against0.2950.231 to 0.336+/- 0.053
Barrel% Allowed6.6%2.8% to 9.8%+/- 3.5%
ERA3.591.99 to 6.17+/- 2.09
FIP3.612.15 to 3.75+/- 0.80
WHIP1.2931.006 to 1.655+/- 0.325
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1059 career BF

xwOBA0.255
K%26.5%
BB%9.9%
Barrel5.4%
vs RHH

1346 career BF

xwOBA0.242
K%25.1%
BB%8.2%
Barrel4.6%