Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 14 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CIN · 2026

Moll, Sam

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
25.8% K%
Range
18.9% to 34.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team CIN Archetype Volatile contact Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-14
60
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
59
Arsenal5 metrics
40
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-14
ERA preseason4.08
ERA current pace2.89
ERA rolling p503.64
Observed weight37%
ERA
1.96 2.76 3.64 4.53 5.33
FIP
2.83 3.27 3.75 4.24 4.68
K%
20.6% 23.1% 25.8% 28.5% 30.9%
BB%
7.1% 8.6% 10.3% 11.9% 13.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-14
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.21
65
ERA2.89
74
BB%10.1%
34
K%25.4%
69
xwOBA allowed0.306
59
Barrel allowed5.3%
79 +18 vs proj
Fastball velo91.5
11
Hard-hit allowed35.5%
72
Whiff%25.1%
67
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-14
Changeup Stuff+90
3
Fastball Stuff+100
33
Mithrandir Stuff+102
48
Sinker Stuff+102
44
Slider Stuff+105
75
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 36%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Moll, Sam · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.306 2026-06-03: 0.2872026-06-04: 0.2902026-06-05: 0.2902026-06-06: 0.2902026-06-07: 0.2902026-06-08: 0.3122026-06-09: 0.3122026-06-10: 0.3122026-06-11: 0.3062026-06-12: 0.3062026-06-13: 0.3062026-06-14: 0.306 2026-06-03 2026-06-14 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Moll, Sam · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Moll, Sam · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 36.2%Sweeper: 35.8%Changeup: 18.3%4-Seam Fastball: 9.8% SI36% · 91 mphprimary pitch SI 36%ST 36%CH 18%FF 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Moll, Sam · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 36% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 91.2 mphSI91 mphSweeper: 36% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 80.9 mphST81 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 84.5 mphCH84 mph4-Seam Fastball: 10% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.5 mphFF92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 38.2% 166 102 limited sample
SL 37.1% 161 105 limited sample
CH 15.2% 66 90 limited sample
FB 9.4% 41 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.217 vs 0.264 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 42%, Sinker 24%, 4-Seam Fastball 23%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.17
K% Δ-0.004
Sample31.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings34.3----
Batters Faced149----
K%25.8%18.9% to 34.2%+/- 7.6%
BB%10.1%6.6% to 15.7%+/- 4.6%
Whiff%25.1%18.5% to 31.3%+/- 6.4%
HR/91.190.29 to 1.93+/- 0.82
xwOBA Against0.2890.210 to 0.330+/- 0.060
Barrel% Allowed6.8%2.3% to 9.8%+/- 3.7%
ERA4.061.98 to 6.59+/- 2.30
FIP3.872.41 to 4.94+/- 1.27
WHIP1.3640.983 to 1.700+/- 0.359
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

379 career BF

xwOBA0.217
K%26.7%
BB%9.0%
Barrel3.8%
vs RHH

451 career BF

xwOBA0.264
K%20.7%
BB%11.5%
Barrel5.4%