Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026

Rodriguez, Eduardo

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.8% K%
Range
16.8% to 25.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Balanced starter Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
51
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
40
Arsenal6 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.44
ERA current pace2.29
ERA rolling p503.02
Observed weight66%
ERA
1.91 2.44 3.02 3.61 4.14
FIP
3.54 3.87 4.24 4.60 4.93
K%
16.4% 17.4% 18.5% 19.6% 20.6%
BB%
6.8% 7.4% 8.1% 8.8% 9.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.17
72
ERA2.29
91
BB%8.4%
55
K%17.1%
14 -24 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.345
21 -19 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.6%
24 -15 vs proj
Fastball velo91.9
15
Hard-hit allowed37.2%
62
Whiff%17.1%
8 -25 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+105
74
Fastball Stuff+103
55
Mithrandir Stuff+102
52
Curveball Stuff+102
52
Cutter Stuff+102
49
Sinker Stuff+94
11
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rodriguez, Eduardo · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.345 2026-07-06: 0.3402026-07-07: 0.3432026-07-08: 0.3432026-07-09: 0.3432026-07-10: 0.3432026-07-11: 0.3432026-07-12: 0.3452026-07-13: 0.3452026-07-14: 0.3452026-07-15: 0.3452026-07-16: 0.3452026-07-17: 0.345 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rodriguez, Eduardo · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rodriguez, Eduardo · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.7%Changeup: 27.0%Curveball: 12.9%Cutter: 12.3%Sinker: 8.2% FF40% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 40%CH 27%CU 13%FC 12%SI 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rodriguez, Eduardo · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 40% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 92.0 mphFF92 mphChangeup: 27% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 85.8 mphCH86 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 79.6 mphCU80 mphCutter: 12% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 88.6 mphFC89 mphSinker: 8% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 91.5 mphSI92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 40.7% 462 103 qualified
CH 28.0% 318 105 qualified
FC 13.9% 158 102 limited sample
CB 10.6% 120 102 limited sample
SI 6.8% 77 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Changeup 20%, Cutter 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.24
K% Δ-0.037
Sample113.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings140.8----
Batters Faced623----
K%20.8%16.8% to 25.5%+/- 4.3%
BB%8.1%6.1% to 10.5%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%20.9%17.2% to 25.0%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.370.83 to 2.16+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.3240.290 to 0.338+/- 0.024
Barrel% Allowed8.4%6.5% to 11.9%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.533.37 to 6.38+/- 1.50
FIP4.063.29 to 5.17+/- 0.94
WHIP1.4191.200 to 1.721+/- 0.260
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1268 career BF

xwOBA0.296
K%20.1%
BB%7.0%
Barrel7.8%
vs RHH

4583 career BF

xwOBA0.314
K%18.8%
BB%8.3%
Barrel9.0%