Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / AZ · 2026

Rodriguez, Eduardo

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
20.8% K%
Range
16.8% to 25.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team AZ Archetype Balanced starter Age 33 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
56
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
50
Arsenal6 metrics
53
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.44
ERA current pace2.90
ERA rolling p503.26
Observed weight77%
ERA
2.05 2.63 3.26 3.89 4.46
FIP
3.30 3.65 4.05 4.44 4.80
K%
17.2% 18.0% 18.9% 19.7% 20.5%
BB%
6.7% 7.2% 7.8% 8.3% 8.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.24
65
ERA2.90
84
BB%7.9%
64
K%18.1%
22 -20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.318
44
Barrel allowed7.6%
47
Fastball velo92.0
15
Hard-hit allowed32.8%
88
Whiff%19.5%
24
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+105
75
Curveball Stuff+102
41
Cutter Stuff+104
75
Fastball Stuff+103
57
Mithrandir Stuff+103
54
Sinker Stuff+96
15
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rodriguez, Eduardo · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.318 2026-09-13: 0.3202026-09-14: 0.3172026-09-18: 0.3172026-09-19: 0.3182026-09-20: 0.3182026-09-21: 0.3182026-09-22: 0.3182026-09-23: 0.3182026-09-24: 0.3182026-09-25: 0.3182026-09-26: 0.3182026-09-27: 0.318 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rodriguez, Eduardo · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rodriguez, Eduardo · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.9%Changeup: 26.4%Cutter: 13.4%Curveball: 12.2%Sinker: 8.0%Pitch Out: 0.0% FF40% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 40%CH 26%FC 13%CU 12%SI 8%PO 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rodriguez, Eduardo · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 40% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 92.1 mphFF92 mphChangeup: 26% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 85.4 mphCH85 mphCutter: 13% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 88.9 mphFC89 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 79.6 mphCU80 mphSinker: 8% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 91.6 mphSI92 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 87.5 mphPO88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 40.2% 779 103 qualified
CH 27.2% 526 105 qualified
FC 14.8% 287 104 qualified
CB 10.8% 210 102 qualified
SI 6.9% 134 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Changeup 20%, Cutter 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.63
K% Δ-0.027
Sample189.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings139.5----
Batters Faced618----
K%20.8%16.8% to 25.5%+/- 4.3%
BB%8.1%6.1% to 10.5%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%20.9%17.2% to 25.0%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.370.83 to 2.16+/- 0.67
xwOBA Against0.3240.290 to 0.338+/- 0.024
Barrel% Allowed8.4%6.5% to 11.9%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.533.37 to 6.38+/- 1.50
FIP4.063.30 to 5.17+/- 0.94
WHIP1.4191.200 to 1.721+/- 0.260
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1268 career BF

xwOBA0.296
K%20.1%
BB%7.0%
Barrel7.8%
vs RHH

4583 career BF

xwOBA0.314
K%18.8%
BB%8.3%
Barrel9.0%