Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TEX · 2026

Williams, Trevor

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.9% K%
Range
13.9% to 24.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team TEX Archetype Balanced starter Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
75
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
63
Arsenal5 metrics
26
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.57
ERA current pace2.73
ERA rolling p503.96
Observed weight33%
ERA
2.69 3.29 3.96 4.62 5.22
FIP
3.10 3.54 4.02 4.50 4.93
K%
17.7% 19.5% 21.5% 23.5% 25.3%
BB%
5.0% 5.8% 6.8% 7.7% 8.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.19
75
ERA2.73
87
BB%8.3%
57 -31 vs proj
K%28.3%
87 +73 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.301
67 +34 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.8%
62 +35 vs proj
Fastball velo89.4
3
Hard-hit allowed36.5%
65
Whiff%24.7%
65 +55 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+100
38
Fastball Stuff+99
30
Mithrandir Stuff+98
17
Sinker Stuff+84
1
Slider Stuff+101
43
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Williams, Trevor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.301 2026-09-12: 0.3082026-09-13: 0.3082026-09-14: 0.3082026-09-18: 0.3082026-09-19: 0.2952026-09-20: 0.2952026-09-21: 0.2952026-09-22: 0.2952026-09-23: 0.2952026-09-24: 0.3102026-09-25: 0.3102026-09-26: 0.301 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Williams, Trevor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Williams, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 39.3%Sweeper: 26.5%Sinker: 16.1%Changeup: 11.5%Slider: 6.6% FF39% · 90 mphprimary pitch FF 39%ST 26%SI 16%CH 11%SL 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Williams, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 39% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 89.8 mphFF90 mphSweeper: 26% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 78.4 mphST78 mphSinker: 16% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 88.4 mphSI88 mphChangeup: 11% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 81.3 mphCH81 mphSlider: 7% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 82.7 mphSL83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 37.1% 124 99 limited sample
SL 32.3% 108 101 limited sample
SI 17.7% 59 84 limited sample
CH 12.9% 43 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.317 vs 0.289 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 42%, Sweeper 27%, Changeup 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.16
K% Δ+0.114
Sample28.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings137.3----
Batters Faced607----
K%16.9%13.9% to 24.0%+/- 5.1%
BB%6.3%4.1% to 8.4%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%17.6%14.8% to 23.4%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.440.90 to 2.26+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.3260.277 to 0.357+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed8.9%6.5% to 11.8%+/- 2.6%
ERA4.893.25 to 6.66+/- 1.70
FIP4.523.09 to 5.54+/- 1.23
WHIP1.3571.160 to 1.758+/- 0.299
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2216 career BF

xwOBA0.317
K%14.7%
BB%6.4%
Barrel8.2%
vs RHH

2353 career BF

xwOBA0.289
K%18.7%
BB%5.1%
Barrel8.7%