Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Taillon, Jameson

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.1% K%
Range
15.2% to 24.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Volatile contact Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-02
ERA preseason4.47
ERA current pace5.37
ERA rolling p504.97
Observed weight55%
ERA
3.98 4.45 4.97 5.49 5.95
FIP
5.47 5.74 6.03 6.32 6.59
K%
16.3% 17.5% 18.9% 20.3% 21.5%
BB%
5.8% 6.5% 7.2% 8.0% 8.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-02
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.8%
49 -41 vs proj
Barrel allowed15.5%
1 -39 vs proj
Fastball velo91.7
15
Hard-hit allowed40.1%
45
K%20.0%
32 +17 vs proj
Whiff%23.0%
51 +41 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.357
12
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-02
Mithrandir Stuff+105
73
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Taillon, Jameson · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-19: 0.3532026-05-21: 0.3532026-05-23: 0.3562026-05-24: 0.3562026-05-25: 0.3562026-05-26: 0.3562026-05-28: 0.3572026-05-29: 0.3572026-05-30: 0.3572026-05-31: 0.3572026-06-01: 0.3572026-06-02: 0.357 2026-05-19 2026-06-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Taillon, Jameson · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Taillon, Jameson · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 29.7%Cutter: 19.3%Changeup: 15.0%Sweeper: 15.0%Curveball: 11.2%Sinker: 9.9% MIX FF 30%FC 19%CH 15%ST 15%CU 11%SI 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Taillon, Jameson · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.2FFFC: HB -0.2, IVB 2.3FCCH: HB -1.3, IVB 2.6CHST: HB -1.1, IVB 3.6STCU: HB 0.6, IVB 4.5CUSI: HB 0.7, IVB 1.5SI horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 29.4% 292 109 qualified
FC 19.7% 196 103 limited sample
SL 15.4% 153 107 limited sample
CH 14.9% 148 102 limited sample
CB 11.3% 112 98 limited sample
SI 9.4% 93 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.304 vs 0.283 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 38%, Sweeper 16%, Cutter 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.86
K% Δ+0.029
Sample66.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings142.9----
Batters Faced590----
K%17.1%15.2% to 24.2%+/- 4.5%
BB%5.7%3.6% to 7.5%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%17.3%15.6% to 22.6%+/- 3.5%
HR/91.681.03 to 2.28+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3400.280 to 0.353+/- 0.037
Barrel% Allowed8.4%6.1% to 11.5%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.512.98 to 5.75+/- 1.38
FIP4.643.52 to 5.08+/- 0.78
WHIP1.3170.978 to 1.420+/- 0.221
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2593 career BF

xwOBA0.304
K%17.6%
BB%5.8%
Barrel8.8%
vs RHH

2708 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%17.8%
BB%3.8%
Barrel7.5%