Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026

Taillon, Jameson

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.1% K%
Range
15.2% to 24.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Volatile contact Age 35 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
26
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
26
Arsenal7 metrics
56
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.57
ERA current pace5.65
ERA rolling p505.25
Observed weight63%
ERA
4.22 4.71 5.25 5.80 6.29
FIP
5.58 5.85 6.15 6.45 6.72
K%
17.0% 18.1% 19.4% 20.6% 21.7%
BB%
6.4% 7.1% 7.8% 8.5% 9.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.47
25
ERA5.65
15
BB%9.2%
46 -45 vs proj
K%20.4%
37 +23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.367
7
Barrel allowed15.0%
1 -33 vs proj
Fastball velo91.8
14
Hard-hit allowed40.9%
33
Whiff%23.6%
58 +49 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Cutter Stuff+102
57
Fastball Stuff+108
90
Mithrandir Stuff+104
65
Changeup Stuff+102
50
Curveball Stuff+98
10
Sinker Stuff+100
33
Slider Stuff+107
86
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Taillon, Jameson · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.367 2026-09-12: 0.3672026-09-13: 0.3672026-09-14: 0.3672026-09-18: 0.3672026-09-19: 0.3672026-09-20: 0.3672026-09-21: 0.3672026-09-22: 0.3672026-09-23: 0.3672026-09-24: 0.3672026-09-25: 0.3672026-09-26: 0.367 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Taillon, Jameson · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Taillon, Jameson · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 27.8%Cutter: 18.8%Sweeper: 15.9%Changeup: 15.7%Curveball: 11.0%Sinker: 9.9% FF28% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 28%FC 19%ST 16%CH 16%CU 11%SI 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Taillon, Jameson · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 91.8 mphFF92 mphCutter: 19% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 86.3 mphFC86 mphSweeper: 16% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 80.2 mphST80 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 84.4 mphCH84 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 79.1 mphCU79 mphSinker: 10% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 91.9 mphSI92 mphSlider: 1% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 82.8 mphSL83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 28.6% 326 108 qualified
FC 20.1% 229 102 qualified
SL 15.2% 173 107 limited sample
CH 14.4% 164 102 limited sample
CB 12.0% 137 98 limited sample
SI 9.6% 109 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.304 vs 0.283 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 38%, Sweeper 16%, Cutter 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.04
K% Δ+0.034
Sample92.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings142.3----
Batters Faced587----
K%17.1%15.2% to 24.2%+/- 4.5%
BB%5.7%3.6% to 7.5%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%17.3%15.6% to 22.6%+/- 3.5%
HR/91.721.05 to 2.32+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.3480.286 to 0.361+/- 0.037
Barrel% Allowed8.4%6.1% to 11.5%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.613.05 to 5.88+/- 1.41
FIP4.643.52 to 5.08+/- 0.78
WHIP1.3180.980 to 1.422+/- 0.221
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2593 career BF

xwOBA0.304
K%17.6%
BB%5.8%
Barrel8.8%
vs RHH

2708 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%17.8%
BB%3.8%
Barrel7.5%