Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026

Ray, Robbie

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
23.9% K%
Range
18.7% to 29.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team SF Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
46
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
44
Arsenal6 metrics
20
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.88
ERA current pace3.38
ERA rolling p503.55
Observed weight67%
ERA
2.15 2.81 3.55 4.28 4.94
FIP
3.31 3.85 4.45 5.06 5.60
K%
19.7% 20.9% 22.1% 23.4% 24.5%
BB%
8.5% 9.3% 10.1% 11.0% 11.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.23
64
ERA3.38
68
BB%11.2%
23 -26 vs proj
K%21.6%
44 -16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.331
32 -18 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.1%
29
Fastball velo93.1
28
Hard-hit allowed37.8%
58
Whiff%22.9%
49
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+102
48
Fastball Stuff+99
27
Mithrandir Stuff+97
16
Slider Stuff+94
8
Curveball Stuff+99
11
Sinker Stuff+93
9
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ray, Robbie · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.331 2026-07-05: 0.3312026-07-06: 0.3292026-07-07: 0.3292026-07-08: 0.3292026-07-09: 0.3292026-07-10: 0.3292026-07-11: 0.3292026-07-12: 0.3312026-07-13: 0.3312026-07-14: 0.3312026-07-15: 0.3312026-07-16: 0.331 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ray, Robbie · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ray, Robbie · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 37.5%Slider: 26.8%Changeup: 15.9%Sinker: 10.3%Knuckle Curve: 9.4% FF38% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 38%SL 27%CH 16%SI 10%KC 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ray, Robbie · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 38% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.3 mphFF93 mphSlider: 27% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 86.0 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 86.0 mphCH86 mphSinker: 10% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.5 mphSI92 mphKnuckle Curve: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 79.5 mphKC80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 43.2% 534 99 qualified
SL 28.3% 350 94 qualified
CH 16.8% 208 102 qualified
CB 7.9% 98 99 limited sample
SI 3.7% 46 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 52%, Slider 23%, Changeup 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.74
K% Δ-0.023
Sample113.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings139.9----
Batters Faced593----
K%23.9%18.7% to 29.5%+/- 5.4%
BB%8.7%5.7% to 11.6%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%24.4%21.1% to 29.9%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.310.71 to 1.96+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3150.257 to 0.353+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed8.9%4.9% to 12.5%+/- 3.8%
ERA4.122.26 to 6.00+/- 1.87
FIP4.222.98 to 6.05+/- 1.53
WHIP1.2660.981 to 1.490+/- 0.255
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1343 career BF

xwOBA0.267
K%21.7%
BB%8.1%
Barrel9.2%
vs RHH

4869 career BF

xwOBA0.285
K%22.3%
BB%8.6%
Barrel9.4%