Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SF · 2026

Ray, Robbie

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
23.9% K%
Range
18.7% to 29.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team SF Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.88
ERA current pace4.60
ERA rolling p504.28
Observed weight56%
ERA
2.95 3.58 4.28 4.98 5.61
FIP
3.57 4.09 4.67 5.24 5.76
K%
20.6% 22.0% 23.6% 25.1% 26.5%
BB%
7.7% 8.6% 9.5% 10.5% 11.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%10.7%
26 -25 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.6%
11 -24 vs proj
Fastball velo93.4
33
Hard-hit allowed36.4%
68
K%23.8%
58
Whiff%23.7%
57
xwOBA allowed0.354
15 -33 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+96
16
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ray, Robbie · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3372026-05-19: 0.3372026-05-21: 0.3562026-05-23: 0.3562026-05-24: 0.3562026-05-25: 0.3602026-05-26: 0.3602026-05-28: 0.3602026-05-29: 0.3602026-05-30: 0.3602026-05-31: 0.3602026-06-01: 0.354 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ray, Robbie · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ray, Robbie · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 45.5%Slider: 29.0%Changeup: 15.2%Knuckle Curve: 7.6%Sinker: 2.7% MIX FF 46%SL 29%CH 15%KC 8%SI 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ray, Robbie · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.4, IVB 1.2FFSL: HB 0.0, IVB 2.6SLCH: HB -0.9, IVB 2.2CHKC: HB 0.1, IVB 4.2KCSI: HB -0.9, IVB 1.7SI horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 44.1% 502 99 qualified
SL 28.7% 327 94 qualified
CH 16.3% 186 101 limited sample
CB 8.1% 92 97 limited sample
SI 2.8% 32 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 52%, Slider 23%, Changeup 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.48
K% Δ-0.001
Sample71.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings138.7----
Batters Faced588----
K%23.9%18.7% to 29.5%+/- 5.4%
BB%8.7%5.7% to 11.6%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%24.4%21.1% to 29.9%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.310.71 to 1.96+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3150.257 to 0.353+/- 0.048
Barrel% Allowed8.9%4.9% to 12.5%+/- 3.8%
ERA4.122.26 to 6.00+/- 1.87
FIP4.222.98 to 6.05+/- 1.53
WHIP1.2660.981 to 1.490+/- 0.255
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1343 career BF

xwOBA0.267
K%21.7%
BB%8.1%
Barrel9.2%
vs RHH

4869 career BF

xwOBA0.285
K%22.3%
BB%8.6%
Barrel9.4%