Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026

Gausman, Kevin

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.0% K%
Range
18.2% to 28.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Balanced starter Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
59
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
53
Arsenal3 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.85
ERA current pace4.33
ERA rolling p504.17
Observed weight67%
ERA
3.08 3.60 4.17 4.74 5.26
FIP
2.98 3.40 3.87 4.34 4.76
K%
21.0% 22.2% 23.4% 24.7% 25.8%
BB%
5.8% 6.4% 7.0% 7.7% 8.2%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.25
62
ERA4.33
42
BB%7.1%
75
K%23.8%
59
xwOBA allowed0.305
59 +16 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.9%
33
Fastball velo93.9
41
Hard-hit allowed40.8%
37
Whiff%25.3%
69 +24 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+107
82
Mithrandir Stuff+106
81
Slider Stuff+93
6
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 51%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gausman, Kevin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.305 2026-07-05: 0.3022026-07-06: 0.3022026-07-07: 0.3022026-07-08: 0.3062026-07-09: 0.3062026-07-10: 0.3062026-07-11: 0.3062026-07-12: 0.3062026-07-13: 0.3062026-07-14: 0.3052026-07-15: 0.3052026-07-16: 0.305 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gausman, Kevin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gausman, Kevin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 51.4%Split-Finger: 38.6%Slider: 10.0% FF51% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 51%FS 39%SL 10% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gausman, Kevin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 51% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.9 mphFF94 mphSplit-Finger: 39% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.0 mphFS84 mphSlider: 10% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 84.1 mphSL84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 86.2% 687 107 qualified
SL 13.8% 110 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 53%, Split-Finger 38%, Slider 9%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.40
K% Δ+0.018
Sample117.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings79.9----
Batters Faced330----
K%22.0%18.2% to 28.9%+/- 5.3%
BB%7.1%5.4% to 9.7%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%22.4%19.9% to 27.5%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.280.72 to 1.94+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3200.273 to 0.346+/- 0.037
Barrel% Allowed8.6%6.6% to 13.4%+/- 3.4%
ERA3.932.73 to 5.63+/- 1.45
FIP3.962.97 to 5.34+/- 1.18
WHIP1.2520.973 to 1.446+/- 0.237
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

3591 career BF

xwOBA0.311
K%20.9%
BB%7.4%
Barrel10.2%
vs RHH

4052 career BF

xwOBA0.307
K%22.8%
BB%6.2%
Barrel10.5%