Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026

Adam, Jason

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.5% K%
Range
18.5% to 34.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team SD Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 35 Status IL-15
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
69
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
66
Arsenal4 metrics
52
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.38
ERA current pace2.50
ERA rolling p503.06
Observed weight37%
ERA
1.64 2.31 3.06 3.80 4.48
FIP
2.52 3.09 3.72 4.35 4.92
K%
17.0% 19.5% 22.2% 25.0% 27.5%
BB%
5.3% 6.5% 7.8% 9.2% 10.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.12
80
ERA2.50
88
BB%5.7%
90 +46 vs proj
K%17.1%
15 -49 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.288
74
Barrel allowed6.6%
68 +22 vs proj
Fastball velo93.4
32
Hard-hit allowed35.8%
69
Whiff%26.7%
77
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+104
61
Fastball Stuff+100
30
Mithrandir Stuff+102
49
Slider Stuff+105
70
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Adam, Jason · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.288 2026-07-06: 0.2882026-07-07: 0.2882026-07-08: 0.2882026-07-09: 0.2882026-07-10: 0.2882026-07-11: 0.2882026-07-12: 0.2882026-07-13: 0.2882026-07-14: 0.2882026-07-15: 0.2882026-07-16: 0.2882026-07-17: 0.288 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Adam, Jason · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Adam, Jason · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 38.1%Changeup: 31.8%4-Seam Fastball: 23.3%Sweeper: 6.8% SL38% · 85 mphprimary pitch SL 38%CH 32%FF 23%ST 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Adam, Jason · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 38% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 84.6 mphSL85 mphChangeup: 32% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 88.2 mphCH88 mph4-Seam Fastball: 23% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.4 mphFF93 mphSweeper: 7% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 47″ drop, 78.1 mphST78 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 45.0% 171 105 limited sample
CH 32.1% 122 104 limited sample
FB 22.9% 87 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 34%, Changeup 34%, 4-Seam Fastball 24%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.71
K% Δ-0.073
Sample34.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings41.1----
Batters Faced168----
K%24.5%18.5% to 34.6%+/- 8.0%
BB%9.0%5.6% to 13.1%+/- 3.7%
Whiff%28.6%26.2% to 37.4%+/- 5.6%
HR/91.060.48 to 1.76+/- 0.64
xwOBA Against0.2930.235 to 0.349+/- 0.057
Barrel% Allowed7.9%4.0% to 12.0%+/- 4.0%
ERA3.210.94 to 4.82+/- 1.94
FIP3.452.32 to 5.61+/- 1.64
WHIP1.1830.894 to 1.502+/- 0.304
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

663 career BF

xwOBA0.264
K%25.2%
BB%9.5%
Barrel8.6%
vs RHH

807 career BF

xwOBA0.268
K%24.8%
BB%7.5%
Barrel6.9%