Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 34%, Changeup 34%, 4-Seam Fastball 24%.
Pitcher projection / SD · 2026
Adam, Jason
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team SD
Archetype Offspeed mix artist
Age 35
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.38 |
| ERA current pace | 0.96 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 2.74 |
| Observed weight | 26% |
ERA
1.32
1.99
2.74
3.50
4.17
FIP
2.03
2.64
3.32
3.99
4.60
K%
16.5%
19.4%
22.6%
25.7%
28.6%
BB%
5.3%
6.7%
8.2%
9.7%
11.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%5.8%
88
+44 vs proj
Barrel allowed4.5%
86
+39 vs proj
Fastball velo93.4
34
Hard-hit allowed37.3%
62
K%15.1%
8
-55 vs proj
Whiff%25.4%
67
-17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.261
88
+20 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+101
43
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
39%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 44.1% | 142 | 105 | limited sample |
| CH | 31.4% | 101 | 103 | limited sample |
| FB | 24.5% | 79 | 98 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -2.25 |
| K% Δ | -0.094 |
| Sample | 21.7 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 41.6 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 171 | -- | -- |
| K% | 24.5% | 18.5% to 34.6% | +/- 8.0% |
| BB% | 9.0% | 5.6% to 13.1% | +/- 3.7% |
| Whiff% | 28.6% | 26.2% to 37.4% | +/- 5.6% |
| HR/9 | 1.06 | 0.48 to 1.76 | +/- 0.64 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.293 | 0.235 to 0.349 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.0% | 4.0% to 12.0% | +/- 4.0% |
| ERA | 3.21 | 0.94 to 4.82 | +/- 1.94 |
| FIP | 3.45 | 2.32 to 5.61 | +/- 1.64 |
| WHIP | 1.183 | 0.894 to 1.502 | +/- 0.304 |
vs LHH
663 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.264 |
| K% | 25.2% |
| BB% | 9.5% |
| Barrel | 8.6% |
vs RHH
807 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.268 |
| K% | 24.8% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 6.9% |