Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Kikuchi, Yusei

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
23.1% K%
Range
19.8% to 29.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 35 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
25
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
33
Arsenal5 metrics
67
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.17
ERA current pace5.81
ERA rolling p504.83
Observed weight40%
ERA
3.85 4.31 4.83 5.35 5.82
FIP
3.26 3.67 4.12 4.57 4.97
K%
19.4% 20.9% 22.7% 24.5% 26.0%
BB%
6.8% 7.7% 8.6% 9.5% 10.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.53
15
ERA5.81
13
BB%10.6%
29 -37 vs proj
K%21.7%
45
xwOBA allowed0.340
25 -25 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.3%
40
Fastball velo95.4
67
Hard-hit allowed42.6%
26
Whiff%21.1%
34 -22 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Mithrandir Stuff+104
69
Curveball Stuff+102
49
Cutter Stuff+102
58
Fastball Stuff+104
61
Slider Stuff+112
97
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kikuchi, Yusei · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.340 2026-07-05: 0.3402026-07-06: 0.3402026-07-07: 0.3402026-07-08: 0.3402026-07-09: 0.3402026-07-10: 0.3402026-07-11: 0.3402026-07-12: 0.3402026-07-13: 0.3402026-07-14: 0.3402026-07-15: 0.3402026-07-16: 0.340 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kikuchi, Yusei · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kikuchi, Yusei · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 33.9%Slider: 23.6%Split-Finger: 22.2%Cutter: 11.5%Curveball: 8.8% FF34% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 34%SL 24%FS 22%FC 11%CU 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kikuchi, Yusei · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 34% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 95.4 mphFF95 mphSlider: 24% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.9 mphSL87 mphSplit-Finger: 22% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 86.7 mphFS87 mphCutter: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.2 mphFC90 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 78.7 mphCU79 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 43.8% 177 104 limited sample
SL 29.7% 120 112 limited sample
FC 15.3% 62 102 limited sample
CB 11.1% 45 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.286 vs 0.310 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 36%, 4-Seam Fastball 35%, Curveball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.74
K% Δ-0.014
Sample35.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings146.6----
Batters Faced633----
K%23.1%19.8% to 29.5%+/- 4.8%
BB%7.6%5.6% to 9.9%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%23.8%20.1% to 28.1%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.420.81 to 2.05+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3140.283 to 0.349+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed8.8%6.9% to 12.5%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.073.02 to 5.76+/- 1.37
FIP4.083.24 to 5.61+/- 1.18
WHIP1.3131.104 to 1.612+/- 0.254
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

930 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%24.5%
BB%6.7%
Barrel7.4%
vs RHH

3457 career BF

xwOBA0.310
K%22.2%
BB%7.5%
Barrel9.8%