Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Kikuchi, Yusei

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
23.1% K%
Range
19.8% to 29.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
27
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
29
Arsenal5 metrics
71
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.17
ERA current pace4.88
ERA rolling p504.57
Observed weight56%
ERA
3.59 4.05 4.57 5.08 5.54
FIP
3.39 3.79 4.23 4.68 5.08
K%
19.1% 20.4% 21.8% 23.3% 24.6%
BB%
7.6% 8.3% 9.1% 10.0% 10.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.52
20
ERA4.88
28
BB%10.6%
29 -39 vs proj
K%20.6%
38 -20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.343
19 -30 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.8%
29
Fastball velo95.5
67
Hard-hit allowed45.9%
7
Whiff%20.0%
27 -33 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+104
61
Mithrandir Stuff+104
65
Slider Stuff+107
89
Curveball Stuff+104
74
Cutter Stuff+103
68
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kikuchi, Yusei · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.343 2026-09-13: 0.3412026-09-14: 0.3412026-09-18: 0.3392026-09-19: 0.3392026-09-20: 0.3392026-09-21: 0.3392026-09-22: 0.3392026-09-23: 0.3432026-09-24: 0.3432026-09-25: 0.3432026-09-26: 0.3432026-09-27: 0.343 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kikuchi, Yusei · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 34%34%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kikuchi, Yusei · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.4%Slider: 25.2%Split-Finger: 17.3%Curveball: 10.3%Cutter: 5.9% FF41% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 41%SL 25%FS 17%CU 10%FC 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kikuchi, Yusei · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 95.5 mphFF96 mphSlider: 25% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.4 mphSL87 mphSplit-Finger: 17% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 86.6 mphFS87 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 51″ drop, 79.4 mphCU79 mphCutter: 6% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.2 mphFC90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 49.5% 396 104 qualified
SL 29.1% 233 107 qualified
CB 12.9% 103 104 limited sample
FC 8.5% 68 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.286 vs 0.310 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 36%, 4-Seam Fastball 35%, Curveball 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.81
K% Δ-0.025
Sample67.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings144.7----
Batters Faced625----
K%23.1%19.8% to 29.5%+/- 4.8%
BB%7.6%5.6% to 9.9%+/- 2.2%
Whiff%23.8%20.1% to 28.1%+/- 4.0%
HR/91.420.81 to 2.05+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3140.283 to 0.349+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed8.8%6.9% to 12.5%+/- 2.8%
ERA4.073.02 to 5.76+/- 1.37
FIP4.083.24 to 5.61+/- 1.18
WHIP1.3131.104 to 1.612+/- 0.254
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

930 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%24.5%
BB%6.7%
Barrel7.4%
vs RHH

3457 career BF

xwOBA0.310
K%22.2%
BB%7.5%
Barrel9.8%