Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Thielbar, Caleb

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
24.3% K%
Range
17.2% to 31.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 39 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
53
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal4 metrics
58
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.67
ERA current pace4.23
ERA rolling p503.86
Observed weight34%
ERA
2.37 3.08 3.86 4.64 5.35
FIP
3.46 3.76 4.09 4.42 4.72
K%
20.4% 22.8% 25.5% 28.2% 30.6%
BB%
5.8% 7.1% 8.4% 9.8% 11.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.23
66
ERA4.23
43
BB%9.5%
38 -21 vs proj
K%27.8%
83 +21 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.330
34 -36 vs proj
Barrel allowed13.0%
4 -40 vs proj
Fastball velo93.2
28
Hard-hit allowed36.4%
66
Whiff%24.7%
63
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Curveball Stuff+101
31
Fastball Stuff+106
80
Mithrandir Stuff+104
66
Slider Stuff+103
55
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Thielbar, Caleb · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.330 2026-07-06: 0.2992026-07-07: 0.2992026-07-08: 0.2992026-07-09: 0.2992026-07-10: 0.3302026-07-11: 0.3252026-07-12: 0.3252026-07-13: 0.3202026-07-14: 0.3302026-07-15: 0.3302026-07-16: 0.3302026-07-17: 0.330 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Thielbar, Caleb · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Thielbar, Caleb · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 40.2%Curveball: 23.9%Slider: 22.8%Sweeper: 12.7%Split-Finger: 0.4% FF40% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 40%CU 24%SL 23%ST 13%FS 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Thielbar, Caleb · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 40% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 93.2 mphFF93 mphCurveball: 24% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 61″ drop, 76.3 mphCU76 mphSlider: 23% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.4 mphSL87 mphSweeper: 13% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 80.3 mphST80 mphSplit-Finger: 0% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 83.2 mphFS83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 46.0% 126 106 limited sample
SL 32.1% 88 103 limited sample
CB 21.9% 60 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.236 vs 0.261 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 42%, Curveball 28%, Slider 15%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.50
K% Δ+0.034
Sample29.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings37.8----
Batters Faced156----
K%24.3%17.2% to 31.8%+/- 7.3%
BB%8.1%5.0% to 12.2%+/- 3.6%
Whiff%23.1%18.5% to 28.6%+/- 5.0%
HR/91.080.48 to 1.94+/- 0.73
xwOBA Against0.2920.241 to 0.339+/- 0.049
Barrel% Allowed8.0%4.3% to 11.7%+/- 3.7%
ERA3.732.21 to 6.23+/- 2.01
FIP3.682.82 to 4.52+/- 0.85
WHIP1.2120.923 to 1.510+/- 0.294
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

508 career BF

xwOBA0.236
K%25.3%
BB%6.6%
Barrel6.9%
vs RHH

769 career BF

xwOBA0.261
K%21.3%
BB%7.2%
Barrel8.0%