Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIN · 2026

Rogers, Taylor

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
23.0% K%
Range
17.7% to 31.5%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIN Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 36 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-15
25
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
34
Arsenal4 metrics
45
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-15
ERA preseason3.85
ERA current pace5.33
ERA rolling p504.37
Observed weight35%
ERA
2.75 3.52 4.37 5.23 6.00
FIP
2.97 3.47 4.03 4.59 5.09
K%
17.4% 19.6% 22.1% 24.6% 26.9%
BB%
6.8% 8.1% 9.6% 11.0% 12.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.62
9
ERA5.33
18
BB%9.2%
45
K%17.6%
16 -37 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.328
36
Barrel allowed6.4%
69 +30 vs proj
Fastball velo91.5
12
Hard-hit allowed29.8%
94
Whiff%15.5%
4 -49 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-15
Cutter Stuff+94
3
Mithrandir Stuff+103
62
Sinker Stuff+98
25
Slider Stuff+109
91
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 47%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rogers, Taylor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.328 2026-06-04: 0.3522026-06-05: 0.3492026-06-06: 0.3492026-06-07: 0.3492026-06-08: 0.3392026-06-09: 0.3392026-06-10: 0.3392026-06-11: 0.3342026-06-12: 0.3272026-06-13: 0.3272026-06-14: 0.3282026-06-15: 0.328 2026-06-04 2026-06-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rogers, Taylor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 15%15%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 30%30% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rogers, Taylor · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 47.0%Sinker: 35.7%Cutter: 17.3% ST47% · 78 mphprimary pitch ST 47%SI 36%FC 17% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rogers, Taylor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 47% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 78.0 mphST78 mphSinker: 36% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.5 mphSI92 mphCutter: 17% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.7 mphFC88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 45.1% 165 109 limited sample
SI 37.2% 136 98 limited sample
FC 17.8% 65 94 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.268 vs 0.303 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 51%, Sinker 49%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.34
K% Δ-0.054
Sample28.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.6----
Batters Faced166----
K%23.0%17.7% to 31.5%+/- 6.9%
BB%10.1%6.8% to 14.5%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%23.3%18.5% to 30.1%+/- 5.8%
HR/91.320.28 to 2.08+/- 0.90
xwOBA Against0.3130.251 to 0.380+/- 0.065
Barrel% Allowed8.6%5.4% to 13.1%+/- 3.9%
ERA3.991.76 to 6.17+/- 2.21
FIP4.422.69 to 5.56+/- 1.44
WHIP1.3641.059 to 1.788+/- 0.364
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

850 career BF

xwOBA0.268
K%26.4%
BB%10.6%
Barrel6.9%
vs RHH

1501 career BF

xwOBA0.303
K%21.0%
BB%9.6%
Barrel10.3%