Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / SEA · 2026

Milner, Hoby

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.0% K%
Range
14.1% to 26.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team SEA Archetype Balanced reliever Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
46
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
39
Arsenal5 metrics
62
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.21
ERA current pace3.92
ERA rolling p504.09
Observed weight42%
ERA
2.70 3.35 4.09 4.82 5.48
FIP
3.03 3.51 4.04 4.57 5.04
K%
13.2% 15.1% 17.2% 19.3% 21.1%
BB%
4.2% 5.3% 6.4% 7.6% 8.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.24
66
ERA3.92
54
BB%5.7%
91
K%14.8%
6 -15 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.350
15 -41 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.9%
76 +20 vs proj
Fastball velo86.9
1
Hard-hit allowed39.7%
41
Whiff%15.8%
4
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+102
48
Fastball Stuff+99
31
Mithrandir Stuff+105
77
Sinker Stuff+106
77
Slider Stuff+105
78
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Milner, Hoby · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.350 2026-09-12: 0.3532026-09-13: 0.3532026-09-14: 0.3532026-09-18: 0.3532026-09-19: 0.3532026-09-20: 0.3532026-09-21: 0.3532026-09-22: 0.3532026-09-23: 0.3532026-09-24: 0.3532026-09-25: 0.3532026-09-26: 0.350 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Milner, Hoby · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 20%20%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Milner, Hoby · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 39.9%Sweeper: 28.0%Changeup: 17.8%4-Seam Fastball: 14.3% SI40% · 87 mphprimary pitch SI 40%ST 28%CH 18%FF 14% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Milner, Hoby · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 40% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 86.8 mphSI87 mphSweeper: 28% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 78.2 mphST78 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 80.5 mphCH81 mph4-Seam Fastball: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.1 mphFF87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 42.0% 196 106 limited sample
SL 26.3% 123 105 limited sample
CH 19.7% 92 102 limited sample
FB 12.0% 56 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.259 vs 0.294 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 35%, Sinker 33%, Changeup 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.02
K% Δ-0.032
Sample42.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings40.5----
Batters Faced168----
K%18.0%14.1% to 26.9%+/- 6.4%
BB%6.8%3.9% to 10.8%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%15.1%11.2% to 21.7%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.160.23 to 1.79+/- 0.78
xwOBA Against0.3080.255 to 0.357+/- 0.051
Barrel% Allowed7.1%3.0% to 11.6%+/- 4.3%
ERA3.902.46 to 6.35+/- 1.94
FIP4.172.55 to 5.37+/- 1.41
WHIP1.2720.997 to 1.554+/- 0.279
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

671 career BF

xwOBA0.259
K%19.9%
BB%4.7%
Barrel5.4%
vs RHH

857 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%18.5%
BB%6.9%
Barrel7.3%