Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Milner, Hoby

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.0% K%
Range
14.1% to 26.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Balanced reliever Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-15
47
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
42
Arsenal5 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-15
ERA preseason4.31
ERA current pace3.86
ERA rolling p504.15
Observed weight36%
ERA
2.68 3.38 4.15 4.92 5.61
FIP
2.90 3.39 3.94 4.48 4.97
K%
12.3% 14.4% 16.7% 19.0% 21.0%
BB%
4.0% 5.1% 6.4% 7.6% 8.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.14
73
ERA3.86
52
BB%5.2%
93 +18 vs proj
K%12.7%
2 -18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.354
16 -34 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.6%
76 +20 vs proj
Fastball velo87.0
1
Hard-hit allowed37.4%
62
Whiff%14.7%
2
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-15
Changeup Stuff+101
43
Fastball Stuff+98
24
Mithrandir Stuff+105
73
Sinker Stuff+105
71
Slider Stuff+105
74
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 43%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Milner, Hoby · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.354 2026-06-04: 0.3462026-06-05: 0.3492026-06-06: 0.3632026-06-07: 0.3632026-06-08: 0.3632026-06-09: 0.3632026-06-10: 0.3632026-06-11: 0.3582026-06-12: 0.3582026-06-13: 0.3592026-06-14: 0.3542026-06-15: 0.354 2026-06-04 2026-06-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Milner, Hoby · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 53%53%Whiff: 15%15%Called strike: 20%20%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Milner, Hoby · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 42.8%Sweeper: 27.0%Changeup: 17.4%4-Seam Fastball: 12.8% SI43% · 87 mphprimary pitch SI 43%ST 27%CH 17%FF 13% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Milner, Hoby · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 43% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 86.9 mphSI87 mphSweeper: 27% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 78.2 mphST78 mphChangeup: 17% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 80.7 mphCH81 mph4-Seam Fastball: 13% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 87.3 mphFF87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 44.6% 172 105 limited sample
SL 26.2% 101 105 limited sample
CH 17.9% 69 101 limited sample
FB 11.4% 44 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.259 vs 0.294 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 35%, Sinker 33%, Changeup 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.18
K% Δ-0.053
Sample32.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings41.3----
Batters Faced172----
K%18.0%14.1% to 26.9%+/- 6.4%
BB%6.8%3.9% to 10.8%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%15.0%11.2% to 21.7%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.210.24 to 1.83+/- 0.80
xwOBA Against0.3150.261 to 0.366+/- 0.052
Barrel% Allowed7.1%3.0% to 11.6%+/- 4.3%
ERA4.042.51 to 6.49+/- 1.99
FIP4.172.55 to 5.37+/- 1.41
WHIP1.3381.046 to 1.631+/- 0.292
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

671 career BF

xwOBA0.259
K%19.9%
BB%4.7%
Barrel5.4%
vs RHH

857 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%18.5%
BB%6.9%
Barrel7.3%