Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / WSH · 2026

Mikolas, Miles

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
15.3% K%
Range
10.2% to 20.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team WSH Archetype Volatile contact Age 38 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason5.15
ERA current pace5.72
ERA rolling p505.43
Observed weight50%
ERA
4.16 4.77 5.43 6.10 6.71
FIP
4.61 4.96 5.34 5.73 6.08
K%
11.5% 12.9% 14.5% 16.0% 17.4%
BB%
4.4% 5.1% 5.9% 6.7% 7.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.0%
74
Barrel allowed10.6%
20 -19 vs proj
Fastball velo92.7
25
Hard-hit allowed43.4%
27
K%13.6%
3
Whiff%15.1%
4
xwOBA allowed0.351
17
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+105
75
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 24%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mikolas, Miles · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3542026-05-19: 0.3602026-05-21: 0.3602026-05-23: 0.3582026-05-24: 0.3582026-05-25: 0.3582026-05-26: 0.3582026-05-28: 0.3512026-05-29: 0.3512026-05-30: 0.3512026-05-31: 0.3512026-06-01: 0.351 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Mikolas, Miles · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 15%15%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mikolas, Miles · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 24.4%Sinker: 23.5%Slider: 20.5%Curveball: 14.9%Changeup: 10.2%Sweeper: 6.5% MIX FF 24%SI 24%SL 21%CU 15%CH 10%ST 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mikolas, Miles · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.4FFSI: HB 0.2, IVB 1.9SISL: HB 0.0, IVB 2.5SLCU: HB 0.3, IVB 5.2CUCH: HB -0.8, IVB 3.0CHST: HB -0.6, IVB 3.6ST horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 26.3% 222 104 qualified
FB 25.3% 213 103 qualified
SI 24.8% 209 109 qualified
CB 14.4% 121 101 limited sample
CH 9.3% 78 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 28%, Slider 23%, Curveball 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.07
K% Δ-0.017
Sample55.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings144.9----
Batters Faced620----
K%15.3%10.2% to 20.7%+/- 5.2%
BB%5.8%3.3% to 7.5%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%14.5%11.7% to 19.5%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.810.84 to 2.59+/- 0.87
xwOBA Against0.3540.296 to 0.385+/- 0.045
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.1% to 13.3%+/- 3.6%
ERA5.653.51 to 7.10+/- 1.80
FIP4.813.72 to 5.80+/- 1.04
WHIP1.3631.117 to 1.647+/- 0.265
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2543 career BF

xwOBA0.332
K%13.3%
BB%5.0%
Barrel11.1%
vs RHH

2501 career BF

xwOBA0.317
K%14.5%
BB%4.5%
Barrel9.0%