Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026

Corbin, Patrick

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.7% K%
Range
12.7% to 23.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Balanced starter Age 37 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-02
ERA preseason4.71
ERA current pace3.86
ERA rolling p504.31
Observed weight47%
ERA
2.93 3.58 4.31 5.03 5.68
FIP
3.66 3.96 4.30 4.64 4.94
K%
13.8% 15.4% 17.1% 18.8% 20.4%
BB%
5.5% 6.2% 7.1% 8.0% 8.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-02
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.5%
79
Barrel allowed8.3%
43
Fastball velo91.2
9
Hard-hit allowed44.6%
20
K%16.8%
14
Whiff%17.9%
13 -32 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.357
12
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-02
Mithrandir Stuff+101
39
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 31%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Corbin, Patrick · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-19: 0.3812026-05-21: 0.3882026-05-23: 0.3882026-05-24: 0.3612026-05-25: 0.3612026-05-26: 0.3612026-05-28: 0.3612026-05-29: 0.3612026-05-30: 0.3572026-05-31: 0.3572026-06-01: 0.3572026-06-02: 0.357 2026-05-19 2026-06-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Corbin, Patrick · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Corbin, Patrick · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 31.2%Slider: 25.2%Changeup: 18.3%Cutter: 18.0%4-Seam Fastball: 7.0%Curveball: 0.3% MIX SI 31%SL 25%CH 18%FC 18%FF 7%CU 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Corbin, Patrick · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB -0.7, IVB 1.8SISL: HB 0.1, IVB 3.8SLCH: HB -0.9, IVB 3.1CHFC: HB 0.1, IVB 2.5FCFF: HB -0.3, IVB 1.5FFCU: HB 0.3, IVB 5.5CU horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 30.8% 216 101 qualified
SL 24.9% 175 96 limited sample
FC 18.9% 133 104 limited sample
CH 17.8% 125 101 limited sample
FB 7.3% 51 100 limited sample
CB 0.3% 2 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.311 vs 0.339 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 34%, Sinker 29%, Cutter 25%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.16
K% Δ+0.001
Sample47.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings76.6----
Batters Faced339----
K%16.7%12.7% to 23.7%+/- 5.5%
BB%7.7%5.4% to 10.2%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%22.4%18.8% to 27.6%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.470.83 to 2.19+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.3500.304 to 0.394+/- 0.045
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.8% to 12.0%+/- 2.6%
ERA5.022.74 to 6.62+/- 1.94
FIP4.593.69 to 5.51+/- 0.91
WHIP1.4591.130 to 1.714+/- 0.292
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1641 career BF

xwOBA0.311
K%18.6%
BB%8.5%
Barrel7.4%
vs RHH

6142 career BF

xwOBA0.339
K%16.1%
BB%7.0%
Barrel9.2%