Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026

Corbin, Patrick

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.7% K%
Range
12.7% to 23.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Balanced starter Age 37 Status IL-60
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
27
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
26
Arsenal6 metrics
36
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.71
ERA current pace5.51
ERA rolling p505.19
Observed weight60%
ERA
3.79 4.45 5.19 5.93 6.59
FIP
3.93 4.24 4.58 4.93 5.24
K%
14.7% 15.9% 17.3% 18.7% 20.0%
BB%
5.8% 6.4% 7.2% 7.9% 8.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.58
14
ERA5.51
17
BB%6.9%
79
K%17.4%
16
xwOBA allowed0.355
11
Barrel allowed7.5%
47
Fastball velo91.3
10
Hard-hit allowed42.3%
22
Whiff%18.9%
19 -30 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Mithrandir Stuff+100
32
Sinker Stuff+101
39
Slider Stuff+96
13
Changeup Stuff+100
33
Cutter Stuff+103
65
Fastball Stuff+100
36
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Corbin, Patrick · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.355 2026-09-12: 0.3562026-09-13: 0.3562026-09-14: 0.3562026-09-18: 0.3562026-09-19: 0.3562026-09-20: 0.3562026-09-21: 0.3562026-09-22: 0.3562026-09-23: 0.3562026-09-24: 0.3562026-09-25: 0.3562026-09-26: 0.355 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Corbin, Patrick · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Corbin, Patrick · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 27.4%Sinker: 27.1%Changeup: 17.5%Cutter: 15.2%4-Seam Fastball: 11.3%Curveball: 1.5% SL27% · 79 mphprimary pitch SL 27%SI 27%CH 17%FC 15%FF 11%CU 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Corbin, Patrick · 2026 arsenal snapshot 21″42″63″84″ Slider: 27% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 79.0 mphSL79 mphSinker: 27% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 91.4 mphSI91 mphChangeup: 17% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 78.4 mphCH78 mphCutter: 15% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.3 mphFC86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 11% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 91.3 mphFF91 mphCurveball: 1% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 61″ drop, 68.5 mphCU69 mphSlow Curve: 0% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 83″ drop, 57.7 mphCS58 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 28.4% 275 101 qualified
SL 26.0% 252 96 qualified
CH 17.7% 172 100 limited sample
FC 17.2% 167 103 limited sample
FB 10.1% 98 100 limited sample
CB 0.6% 6 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.311 vs 0.339 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 34%, Sinker 29%, Cutter 25%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.49
K% Δ+0.006
Sample77.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings77.3----
Batters Faced342----
K%16.7%12.7% to 23.7%+/- 5.5%
BB%7.7%5.4% to 10.2%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%22.4%18.8% to 27.6%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.470.83 to 2.19+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.3500.304 to 0.394+/- 0.045
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.8% to 12.0%+/- 2.6%
ERA5.022.74 to 6.62+/- 1.94
FIP4.593.69 to 5.51+/- 0.91
WHIP1.4571.131 to 1.714+/- 0.292
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1641 career BF

xwOBA0.311
K%18.6%
BB%8.5%
Barrel7.4%
vs RHH

6142 career BF

xwOBA0.339
K%16.1%
BB%7.0%
Barrel9.2%