Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Boyd, Matthew

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.2% K%
Range
16.8% to 26.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Balanced starter Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
46
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
38
Arsenal5 metrics
60
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.91
ERA current pace4.50
ERA rolling p504.19
Observed weight48%
ERA
3.14 3.64 4.19 4.75 5.25
FIP
3.47 3.74 4.05 4.35 4.62
K%
19.5% 20.9% 22.5% 24.1% 25.5%
BB%
5.0% 5.7% 6.5% 7.2% 7.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.40
35
ERA4.50
37
BB%6.8%
78
K%23.5%
57 +17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.340
25 -21 vs proj
Barrel allowed12.0%
6 -32 vs proj
Fastball velo92.8
25
Hard-hit allowed50.7%
1
Whiff%26.2%
73 +30 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+101
42
Mithrandir Stuff+103
58
Changeup Stuff+109
92
Curveball Stuff+103
61
Slider Stuff+102
46
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 47%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Boyd, Matthew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.340 2026-07-06: 0.3352026-07-07: 0.3352026-07-08: 0.3352026-07-09: 0.3292026-07-10: 0.3292026-07-11: 0.3292026-07-12: 0.3292026-07-13: 0.3292026-07-14: 0.3402026-07-15: 0.3402026-07-16: 0.3402026-07-17: 0.340 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Boyd, Matthew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 51%51% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Boyd, Matthew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 47.4%Changeup: 27.4%Slider: 15.1%Curveball: 9.6%Sinker: 0.5% FF47% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 47%CH 27%SL 15%CU 10%SI 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Boyd, Matthew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 47% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 92.8 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 27% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 79.1 mphCH79 mphSlider: 15% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 83.4 mphSL83 mphCurveball: 10% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 73.3 mphCU73 mphSinker: 0% usage, 19″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.5 mphSI91 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.8% 257 101 qualified
CH 28.7% 145 109 limited sample
SL 11.3% 57 102 limited sample
CB 8.5% 43 103 limited sample
SI 0.8% 4 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.260 vs 0.287 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Changeup 23%, Slider 15%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.42
K% Δ+0.023
Sample50.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings141.0----
Batters Faced588----
K%21.2%16.8% to 26.2%+/- 4.7%
BB%6.5%4.9% to 8.8%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%22.2%18.6% to 26.3%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.280.76 to 1.92+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.3170.280 to 0.328+/- 0.024
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.7% to 12.0%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.082.44 to 5.42+/- 1.49
FIP4.063.23 to 4.86+/- 0.82
WHIP1.3291.066 to 1.482+/- 0.208
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1043 career BF

xwOBA0.260
K%20.9%
BB%5.5%
Barrel6.3%
vs RHH

3775 career BF

xwOBA0.287
K%19.1%
BB%6.4%
Barrel9.4%