Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Boyd, Matthew

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.2% K%
Range
16.8% to 26.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Balanced starter Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-02
ERA preseason3.91
ERA current pace6.00
ERA rolling p504.63
Observed weight34%
ERA
3.52 4.05 4.63 5.21 5.73
FIP
3.33 3.61 3.93 4.25 4.54
K%
20.5% 22.2% 24.1% 25.9% 27.6%
BB%
4.6% 5.4% 6.2% 7.1% 7.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-02
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.4%
81
Barrel allowed12.3%
7 -33 vs proj
Fastball velo92.6
23
Hard-hit allowed55.6%
0
K%28.8%
87 +46 vs proj
Whiff%27.3%
80 +36 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.322
43
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-02
Mithrandir Stuff+102
54
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Boyd, Matthew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-19: 0.3222026-05-21: 0.3222026-05-23: 0.3222026-05-24: 0.3222026-05-25: 0.3222026-05-26: 0.3222026-05-28: 0.3222026-05-29: 0.3222026-05-30: 0.3222026-05-31: 0.3222026-06-01: 0.3222026-06-02: 0.322 2026-05-19 2026-06-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Boyd, Matthew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 56%56% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Boyd, Matthew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 49.9%Changeup: 28.8%Slider: 11.8%Curveball: 8.7%Sinker: 0.8% MIX FF 50%CH 29%SL 12%CU 9%SI 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Boyd, Matthew · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.9, IVB 1.6FFCH: HB -1.2, IVB 3.3CHSL: HB 0.0, IVB 2.9SLCU: HB 0.6, IVB 4.8CUSI: HB 1.6, IVB 2.0SI horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 50.9% 219 100 qualified
CH 28.6% 123 109 limited sample
SL 11.6% 50 99 limited sample
CB 7.9% 34 103 limited sample
SI 0.9% 4 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.260 vs 0.287 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 47%, Changeup 23%, Slider 15%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.92
K% Δ+0.076
Sample28.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings140.4----
Batters Faced585----
K%21.2%16.8% to 26.2%+/- 4.7%
BB%6.5%4.9% to 8.8%+/- 1.9%
Whiff%22.2%18.6% to 26.3%+/- 3.8%
HR/91.280.76 to 1.92+/- 0.58
xwOBA Against0.3170.280 to 0.328+/- 0.024
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.7% to 12.0%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.082.44 to 5.42+/- 1.49
FIP4.063.23 to 4.86+/- 0.82
WHIP1.3291.066 to 1.482+/- 0.208
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1043 career BF

xwOBA0.260
K%20.9%
BB%5.5%
Barrel6.3%
vs RHH

3775 career BF

xwOBA0.287
K%19.1%
BB%6.4%
Barrel9.4%