Raley, Brooks
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.77 |
| ERA current pace | 1.27 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.05 |
| Observed weight | 29% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 46.4% | 153 | 107 | limited sample |
| SI | 23.3% | 77 | 98 | limited sample |
| FC | 18.2% | 60 | 99 | limited sample |
| CH | 12.1% | 40 | 97 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -2.26 |
| K% Δ | +0.038 |
| Sample | 22.7 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 32.8 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 133 | -- | -- |
| K% | 22.8% | 15.9% to 31.1% | +/- 7.6% |
| BB% | 8.6% | 4.8% to 12.5% | +/- 3.9% |
| Whiff% | 20.2% | 15.3% to 27.7% | +/- 6.2% |
| HR/9 | 1.00 | 0.00 to 1.36 | +/- 0.68 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.300 | 0.223 to 0.363 | +/- 0.070 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 6.0% | 0.6% to 9.1% | +/- 4.3% |
| ERA | 3.53 | 0.90 to 5.29 | +/- 2.19 |
| FIP | 2.97 | 1.67 to 6.65 | +/- 2.49 |
| WHIP | 1.167 | 0.756 to 1.598 | +/- 0.421 |
382 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.223 |
| K% | 23.8% |
| BB% | 6.7% |
| Barrel | 2.5% |
587 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.250 |
| K% | 21.0% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 3.2% |