Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / NYM · 2026

Raley, Brooks

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.8% K%
Range
15.9% to 31.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team NYM Archetype Balanced reliever Age 38 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
70
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
63
Arsenal5 metrics
43
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.77
ERA current pace2.04
ERA rolling p503.09
Observed weight39%
ERA
1.51 2.26 3.09 3.93 4.68
FIP
1.49 2.35 3.29 4.24 5.10
K%
18.2% 20.5% 23.1% 25.7% 28.1%
BB%
5.6% 6.8% 8.2% 9.6% 10.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.16
73
ERA2.04
96
BB%8.4%
54
K%24.0%
61
xwOBA allowed0.296
67
Barrel allowed5.9%
77
Fastball velo90.1
4
Hard-hit allowed32.7%
88
Whiff%22.2%
44 +17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+98
22
Cutter Stuff+100
39
Mithrandir Stuff+102
54
Sinker Stuff+97
19
Slider Stuff+106
83
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 39%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Raley, Brooks · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.296 2026-07-05: 0.3032026-07-06: 0.3032026-07-07: 0.2992026-07-08: 0.2962026-07-09: 0.2962026-07-10: 0.2992026-07-11: 0.2992026-07-12: 0.2992026-07-13: 0.2962026-07-14: 0.2962026-07-15: 0.2962026-07-16: 0.296 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Raley, Brooks · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Raley, Brooks · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 39.3%Cutter: 26.2%Sinker: 22.0%Changeup: 12.5% ST39% · 81 mphprimary pitch ST 39%FC 26%SI 22%CH 13% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Raley, Brooks · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sweeper: 39% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 80.6 mphST81 mphCutter: 26% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 86.4 mphFC86 mphSinker: 22% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 90.1 mphSI90 mphChangeup: 13% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 84.2 mphCH84 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 44.0% 173 106 limited sample
SI 23.4% 92 97 limited sample
FC 20.6% 81 100 limited sample
CH 12.0% 47 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.223 vs 0.250 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 42%, Sinker 24%, Cutter 20%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.49
K% Δ+0.013
Sample36.3 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings32.2----
Batters Faced130----
K%22.8%15.9% to 31.1%+/- 7.6%
BB%8.6%4.8% to 12.5%+/- 3.9%
Whiff%20.2%15.3% to 27.7%+/- 6.2%
HR/91.000.00 to 1.36+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.2990.223 to 0.363+/- 0.070
Barrel% Allowed6.0%0.6% to 9.1%+/- 4.3%
ERA3.530.90 to 5.29+/- 2.19
FIP2.971.67 to 6.65+/- 2.49
WHIP1.1670.756 to 1.598+/- 0.421
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

382 career BF

xwOBA0.223
K%23.8%
BB%6.7%
Barrel2.5%
vs RHH

587 career BF

xwOBA0.250
K%21.0%
BB%7.1%
Barrel3.2%