Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 50%, 4-Seam Fastball 29%, Slider 14%.
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026
Kelly, Michael
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Team ATH
Archetype Balanced reliever 2
Age 34
Status Out / inactive
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
50
Pitching
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.35 |
| ERA current pace | 16.20 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 5.38 |
| Observed weight | 16% |
ERA
3.41
4.35
5.38
6.42
7.35
FIP
3.45
3.95
4.51
5.07
5.58
K%
12.2%
15.4%
18.8%
22.3%
25.4%
BB%
7.3%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
14.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Fastball Stuff+103
55
Mithrandir Stuff+104
64
Sinker Stuff+92
8
Slider Stuff+105
72
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
48%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 67.8% | 82 | 105 | limited sample |
| FB | 22.3% | 27 | 103 | limited sample |
| SI | 9.1% | 11 | 92 | limited sample |
| CH | 0.8% | 1 | 85 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 34.4 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 144 | -- | -- |
| K% | 18.7% | 11.7% to 27.1% | +/- 7.7% |
| BB% | 10.1% | 6.4% to 14.9% | +/- 4.2% |
| Whiff% | 19.8% | 14.7% to 26.6% | +/- 6.0% |
| HR/9 | 1.34 | 0.32 to 1.99 | +/- 0.83 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.326 | 0.246 to 0.395 | +/- 0.074 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.7% | 3.7% to 11.3% | +/- 3.8% |
| ERA | 4.11 | 1.41 to 6.01 | +/- 2.30 |
| FIP | 4.78 | 3.21 to 5.69 | +/- 1.24 |
| WHIP | 1.322 | 1.018 to 1.730 | +/- 0.356 |
vs LHH
176 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.301 |
| K% | 14.5% |
| BB% | 11.4% |
| Barrel | 6.9% |
vs RHH
265 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.292 |
| K% | 15.2% |
| BB% | 8.5% |
| Barrel | 7.2% |