Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Lorenzen, Michael

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.8% K%
Range
15.5% to 24.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Volatile contact Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-02
ERA preseason4.41
ERA current pace7.21
ERA rolling p505.97
Observed weight56%
ERA
4.90 5.41 5.97 6.53 7.03
FIP
4.51 4.74 4.99 5.25 5.48
K%
14.7% 15.8% 17.1% 18.4% 19.5%
BB%
6.4% 7.2% 7.9% 8.7% 9.5%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-02
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%7.7%
65
Barrel allowed9.3%
31
Fastball velo93.9
42
Hard-hit allowed46.9%
10
K%15.3%
9
Whiff%19.3%
20
xwOBA allowed0.374
8
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-02
Mithrandir Stuff+101
45
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 20%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lorenzen, Michael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-19: 0.3782026-05-21: 0.3782026-05-23: 0.3782026-05-24: 0.3752026-05-25: 0.3752026-05-26: 0.3752026-05-28: 0.3752026-05-29: 0.3752026-05-30: 0.3752026-05-31: 0.3742026-06-01: 0.3742026-06-02: 0.374 2026-05-19 2026-06-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lorenzen, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lorenzen, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 19.9%Changeup: 19.8%Sinker: 15.8%Curveball: 14.0%Cutter: 13.7%Slider: 8.4% MIX FF 20%CH 20%SI 16%CU 14%FC 14%SL 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lorenzen, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.4FFCH: HB -0.5, IVB 2.5CHSI: HB 0.4, IVB 1.9SICU: HB -0.0, IVB 4.1CUFC: HB -0.0, IVB 2.2FCSL: HB -0.0, IVB 3.0SLST: HB -0.5, IVB 3.4ST horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 20.9% 205 96 qualified
FB 20.5% 201 100 qualified
SL 16.5% 162 105 limited sample
SI 15.7% 154 104 limited sample
CB 14.0% 137 102 limited sample
FC 12.5% 123 108 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 22%, Sinker 18%, Changeup 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.32
K% Δ-0.025
Sample62.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings74.6----
Batters Faced317----
K%17.8%15.5% to 24.2%+/- 4.4%
BB%7.8%5.7% to 10.3%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%20.0%17.9% to 24.5%+/- 3.3%
HR/91.621.03 to 2.23+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3600.308 to 0.385+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed8.7%6.7% to 11.7%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.893.40 to 6.39+/- 1.50
FIP4.613.60 to 4.97+/- 0.68
WHIP1.3981.175 to 1.638+/- 0.231
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2106 career BF

xwOBA0.311
K%17.4%
BB%8.3%
Barrel8.1%
vs RHH

2262 career BF

xwOBA0.312
K%17.7%
BB%6.6%
Barrel8.9%